Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies

Nov 14, 20266:30 PM CTACC NetworkBlacksburg, VA
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Stanford has been great at home and helpless on the road, and the next stop is Lane Stadium in mid-November. Virginia Tech is 6-3 and already bowl-eligible, coming off a game where its secondary got run over.

SAT 11/14, 6:30 PM CT · Week 11ACC Network
Kickoff 34°10 mph

Virginia Tech (6-3) hosts Stanford (4-5), which has lost 15 straight road games, including 3 blowouts in its last 5 games. Both teams faded badly after halftime in their most recent losses: Louisville scored the final 28 points against Stanford, and SMU scored 21 unanswered in the third quarter against a leaky Hokies secondary. Stanford's recently productive offense against that Tech secondary is the matchup that decides how competitive this is.

Stanford Cardinal
  • Offense has scored 24+ in 3 straight
  • Bye week to fix a run defense Louisville gashed
  • Bowl hopes give it every reason to show up
  • 15 straight road losses, longest active FBS skid
  • Road losses by 54, 51 and 28 points
  • Collapsed after halftime at Louisville, gave up last 28
Virginia Tech Hokies
  • Beat Georgia Tech at Lane, lost to Pitt by 2
  • Won at Clemson 3 weeks ago
  • Home crowd against a team that can't win away
  • Secondary got shredded in the loss at SMU
  • Allowed 21 unanswered in SMU third quarter
  • Lost at Cal, so no lock against lesser teams

This is a football game between 2 teams with the same last-5 shape, L-L-W-W-L, that got there in very different ways. Stanford's 2 wins came at home against Elon and NC State. Its 3 losses all came on the road, and none were close: 3-57 at Wake Forest, 7-58 at Notre Dame, 24-52 at Louisville. That Louisville loss pushed Stanford's road losing streak to 15 games, which Louisville's athletic department called the longest active skid in the FBS. Saturday, November 14 in Blacksburg is the next chance to end it.

The Louisville game is the one to watch on film, because Stanford was in it for a half. Louisville scored the last 28 points of the game, with Isaac Brown running for 139 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 9 carries. When a defense gives up that much per carry, it isn't getting worn down. It's breaking on single plays. Stanford then had an open Saturday, so it gets 2 weeks to fix the run fits before it travels again. Neither club plays anyone else first, so nothing on either schedule changes the matchup before then.

Virginia Tech's problem is at the back of its defense. In the 51-28 loss at SMU, Tech held up early and then gave up 21 unanswered points in the third quarter. Gobbler Country's recap said the Hokies "had no effective defensive secondary to speak of." For a team that won at Clemson 3 weeks ago, that's an ugly way to hand back the momentum. The loss came in a Friday game, so Tech gets 8 days before this one.

The second-half fades are what these 2 teams share. Stanford fell apart after halftime in Louisville, and Tech did the same in Dallas. That matters more than either season record. Whichever defense can still tackle in the third quarter probably wins. Stanford's offense has come alive lately, with 34, 31 and 24 points in its last 3 games, so a Tech secondary still sorting itself out will get tested.

10/31L@Louisville24-52
10/24WvsNC State31-28
10/17WvsElon34-7
10/10L@3Notre Dame7-58
10/03L@11Wake Forest3-57
11/07L@25SMU28-51
10/24W@Clemson20-16
10/17WvsGeorgia Tech34-24
10/10L@California20-25
10/02LvsPittsburgh33-35

Lane Stadium is where Tech's season has looked most normal. The Hokies beat Georgia Tech 34-24 there and lost to Pittsburgh by 2 in a 33-35 shootout. Neither result suggests Blacksburg will be an easy place to end a 15-game road streak. Early forecasts put kickoff in the high 30s with a 12 mph wind, but that's 8 days out and will change.

The stakes aren't even. Virginia Tech has 6 wins and is playing for bowl positioning. Stanford is 4-5 and 2-4 in the ACC, so it has very little room left if it wants to play in December. That's reason enough for Stanford to show up desperate. The question is whether Stanford's road games have been bad luck or a real flaw, and 3 road losses by a combined 133 points make a strong case for the second.

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