Barstool Bush

San Jose State at USC

USC Opens the Riley Playoff-Or-Bust Year vs Overmatched Spartans

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 1h ago·2 min read
USC
AT
2:00 PM CT
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 30, 5:48 AM CT
StateUSC
StateUSC-108
-110OverUnder
Best BetUSC

USC returns its quarterback, its full offensive line, and one of the deepest backfields in the conference against a Spartans team replacing its starting QB, top receiver, and leading tackler all at once. The talent and continuity gap here is enormous, and San Jose State's own outlet already projects a sub-.500 season for the Spartans. This is about as close to a lock as Week 1 moneylines get.

State
  • Malachi Riley leads a retooled, pass-heavy receiver room
  • High-volume passing attack kept them competitive last year
  • Lost starting QB, leading receiver, top tackler, top CB
  • Struggled running ball (119 YPG) and rushing passer (17 sacks)
USC
  • Maiava and all 5 O-line starters return intact
  • Jordan/Miller backfield averaged 6.3 YPC in 2025
  • Defense has been Riley's recurring weakness for years
  • New DC scheme under Patterson still unproven in games

There's no probable-pitcher card for this one, but there's still a clear storyline heading into the Saturday, August 29 opener: USC returns Jayden Maiava, an efficient, experienced quarterback, behind an offensive line that brings back all 5 starters. San Jose State, meanwhile, is breaking in Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver at quarterback after last year's starter left for Duke. That gap alone should define how this game plays out.

The bigger question in Los Angeles isn't the Week 1 score, it's what USC looks like on defense. Riley's teams have historically leaked points no matter how loaded the offense is, and the program brought in former TCU head coach Gary Patterson specifically to fix that. San Jose State's own line of attack isn't nothing, either. The Spartans lost their leading receiver and leading tackler this offseason, but Arizona transfer Malachi Riley and a retooled receiver room give Weaver options to throw the ball around, even if the run game and pass rush were both problems a year ago.

None of that changes the shape of this game. USC enters the year with the nation's No. 1 recruiting class and its sights set on a College Football Playoff bid that's slipped away 4 years running. San Jose State is coming off a 3-win season, its worst mark since 2018, and head coach Ken Niumatalolo lost most of the roster that got them there.

Waymond Jordan and King Miller give USC one of the deeper backfields in the Big Ten, averaging a combined 6.3 yards per carry a season ago, and that ground game should feast on a Spartans defense that struggled to get off blocks and off the field in 2025. San Jose State's path here isn't to slow USC down completely, it's to make enough plays through the air with Weaver and Riley to keep the scoreboard from getting embarrassing.

San Jose State
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
USC
USC
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.

This is exactly the kind of spot USC needs in a Big Ten schedule that later throws Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State at Riley's group. A clean, low-drama opener lets the Trojans get freshmen and new pieces on defense some reps before the stakes ramp up. For San Jose State, it's the first data point in a season where just getting back above .500 would count as progress.

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