TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona Wildcats

Nov 6, 20269:15 PM CTESPNTucson, AZ
By JR·3 min read

TLDR: Arizona went to Lubbock with a halftime lead and a Big 12 title path, and came home with neither. Now the Wildcats get a Friday night home game against a TCU team that has spent all fall winning ugly or not winning at all.

FRI 11/06, 9:15 PM CT · Week 10ESPN
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No. 22 Arizona (6-2) hosts 4-4 TCU on Friday night coming off a 34-26 loss at Texas Tech in which the Wildcats blew a halftime lead and were outrushed 336-12. TCU has scored 22 or fewer in each of its last 5 games but leans on a defense that has kept those games close, and it just beat Kansas despite being outgained by 165 yards. The game likely turns on whether Arizona's run defense recovers and whether Noah Fifita's passing game, already missing T. Spivey, can get ahead early against a TCU offense that can't afford to play from behind.

TCU Horned Frogs
  • Defense held Baylor to 6, nobody above 24 lately
  • Jaden Craig's legs carried the Kansas win
  • Arizona just surrendered 336 rushing yards
  • Offense hasn't topped 22 points in 5 games
  • Outgained 451-286 by Kansas, saved by turnovers
  • LB M. Short out against a pass-heavy offense
Arizona Wildcats
  • Fifita threw for 417 at Texas Tech
  • Scored 34+ in 4 straight before Lubbock
  • Home Friday night, Iowa State held to 3 here
  • Outscored 17-3 after the break in Lubbock
  • Outrushed 336-12 by Texas Tech
  • Spivey, Austin out; Richardson, Rusk questionable

The setup is easy to read. No. 22 Arizona is 6-2 and 3-2 in the Big 12, and its offense runs through Noah Fifita. Against Texas Tech he went 33 of 45 for 417 yards and a touchdown, and it still wasn't enough. TCU is 4-4 and 2-3 in league play and lives at the other end of the scoreboard. Its last 5 games have produced 13, 10, 17, 20 and 22 points. That puts a passer who can throw for 400 against an offense that hasn't reached 23 in over a month.

The Texas Tech game is the reason this one is interesting. Arizona led 17-10 at halftime and scored on its first drive of the third quarter. After that the Wildcats got outscored 17-3 and outrushed 336-12. SI's Arizona site called it another blown halftime lead, so this has happened before. Arizona was already thin before that. Safety D. Austin and receiver T. Spivey are both done for the season, and receiver G. Richardson (hamstring) and tight end C. Rusk (leg) have been questionable for weeks. Those are 2 of Fifita's targets, and nobody knows yet whether they'll play on Friday, November 6.

TCU beat Kansas 22-16 at home, and the box score makes it look like the Frogs lost. Kansas outgained them 451 to 286 and held the ball for nearly 39 minutes. Two Jayhawk turnovers decided it. Jaden Craig ran for 87 yards and the TCU touchdown that held up. Coming out of that game, the Frogs have 1 win in their last 2, 2 in their last 5, and an offense that needs short fields to score.

10/31WvsKansas22-16
10/24LvsWest Virginia20-24
10/17W@Baylor17-6
10/03Lvs7BYU10-17
09/26L@UCF13-21
10/31L@13Texas Tech26-34
10/24WvsIowa State39-3
10/10W@West Virginia52-31
10/04WvsCincinnati34-7
09/26W@Washington State34-24

Look past the records and TCU's defense is the most dependable thing either team has shown lately. It held Baylor to 6 points on the road and kept BYU, UCF and West Virginia all at 24 or under. The Frogs' 4 losses came by 8, 7 and 4 points, plus 1 more result outside this window. That's a team losing close games. It isn't getting blown out. Arizona's 4-game run before Lubbock was the opposite: 34, 34, 52 and 39 points, with Iowa State held to 3. The question is which of those holds up when they meet.

TCU's injury report is short. Linebacker M. Short is out with no timetable, and that matters against an offense that wants to spread the field and throw 45 times. For Arizona, the bigger worry is what Texas Tech did to them on the ground. A team that just gave up 336 rushing yards will see a TCU offense that won its last game on the legs of its leading rusher. Both teams play again 6 days after a Saturday game, it's a late Friday kick in Tucson, and the forecast is clear and 71 degrees, so weather won't be an excuse for anybody.

Arizona needs this one to stay in the Big 12 race after Lubbock, and it gets to play it at home. TCU has nothing left to play for in the standings except a bowl trip and the chance to wreck somebody else's season, and a Friday night on the road against a ranked team that just collapsed in the second half is a good spot for that.

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