TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears

·Oct 17, 2026·6:00 PM CT·FS1·Waco, TX

By JR·2 min read

TCU(2-3)

Baylor(4-1)

6:00 PM

TLDR: The Revivalry goes back to McLane Stadium with the clubs headed opposite ways: Baylor has won 3 straight, and TCU has lost 2 straight with an offense that can't find the end zone. TCU's defense is the reason the Horned Frogs still have a shot.

SAT 10/17, SAT OCT 17, 6:00 PM CT · Week 7 FS1

TCU

(2-3)

LLWWL

Baylor

(4-1)

WWWWL

Kickoff 61°20 mph

Baylor (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) hosts TCU (2-3, 0-2) at McLane Stadium in the Revivalry. The game turns on whether TCU's stingy defense, which held BYU to 62 passing yards, can make up for an offense that has scored 13 or fewer in all 3 losses. Baylor's Lagway-led air raid and a defense that hasn't allowed 20 all year make the Bears the steadier side. Both rosters are missing pieces, including TCU's Pitchford and Dwyer and Baylor's season-ending loss of safety Redding.

TCU Horned Frogs

Held BYU to 62 passing yards
Defense hasn't allowed more than 21 all season
Out-gained BYU in the first half
13 or fewer points in all 3 losses
RB Pitchford and WR Dwyer out
LB Short out, no timetable

Baylor Bears

Lagway threw for 333 against Auburn
Defense has allowed 19 or fewer every game
3 home wins by double digits
Safety Redding lost for the season
WR Williams Jr. out with collarbone injury
Arizona State result still pending in the data

Start with the quarterbacks, because that's where the matchup leans. Baylor has DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer, running Jake Spavital's air raid. Lagway threw for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns in the opener against Auburn, and Gavin Freeman caught 12 balls for 154 in that game. TCU sits at 2-3 and 0-2 in the Big 12, and its passing game has had nowhere near that kind of afternoon. The Frogs scored 10 against North Carolina, 13 at UCF and 10 against BYU. Saturday, October 17 in Waco comes down to whether that offense can keep up with one that has a clear identity.

Both clubs are short on skill players. TCU played BYU without running back J. Pitchford and receiver J. Dwyer, who has had a foot injury since mid-September, and linebacker M. Short is out with no timetable. Baylor's biggest loss is on the back end: safety C. Redding is done for the year with a knee injury, and receiver T. Williams Jr. is out for an extended stretch with a broken collarbone. Neither club plays again before this one on the current schedule, so the extra time could clear some of those names, or none of them.

The BYU game shows what TCU is right now. The Frogs led in total yards 151 to 101 at halftime with the score tied 7-7. Then BYU stopped throwing. Bear Bachmeier finished 11-of-24 for 62 yards, and the Cougars won 17-10 by running the ball, including a drive of nearly 6 minutes that was all rushes and ended in a 21-yard quarterback-draw touchdown with 2:06 left. TCU took away the pass completely and still lost, which pretty much sums up its season.

Baylor's 3-1 is more solid than flashy. The only loss was by 1 point to Auburn away from Waco, and since then the Bears have beaten Prairie View A&M 44-3, Louisiana Tech 36-19 and Colorado 23-13, all at McLane. The defense has given up 19 or fewer in every game. There was also a late trip to Arizona State on the October 3 schedule, and that result isn't part of the 3-1 shown here. Keep an eye on it before this one kicks off.

TCU's defense is good enough to keep this close. It gave up 7 points each to Grambling and Arkansas State and only 15, 21 and 17 in the 3 losses. A Baylor secondary without Redding is the obvious place for the Frogs to attack, but they have to show they can do it with Dwyer still out. If TCU's offense stays around 10 points, Baylor doesn't need anything fancy. If the Frogs get to 20, the rivalry gets interesting fast.

The board on this one hasn't opened yet, so the picks wait for a number. For now, the read is that Baylor is the steadier team at home with a quarterback who can win games by himself. TCU's whole case rests on its defense and a few big plays, and it hasn't produced those plays yet.

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears

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