TLDR: No. 10 Texas has rebuilt its season since October, and No. 15 LSU just had its own season knocked sideways at home by Alabama. On Saturday, November 14, in Baton Rouge, one of these 2 teams heads into the last stretch with a Playoff case, and the other heads into it with a long list of what-ifs.
Texas comes into Baton Rouge having won 3 straight behind Arch Manning, who threw for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns in the comeback at Missouri. LSU is regrouping after a 31-13 home loss to Alabama in which the offense moved the ball but came away empty on 3 trips into Alabama territory. The board has LSU favored at home over the higher-ranked Longhorns, and the game likely turns on whether the Tigers can fix their red-zone and run-game problems in a week.
−3 turnovers on downs in Alabama territory, 2 inside the 10
−Dilin Jones held to 56 yards on 17 carries
−Leavitt running early instead of letting throws develop
The quarterback matchup is the story. Arch Manning went 28-of-38 for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in the 34-20 win at Missouri, and Texas outscored the Tigers 24-10 after halftime. That makes 4 wins over top-20 opponents this season for the Longhorns. On the other side, Sam Leavitt went 15-of-21 for 168 yards against Alabama and ran more than he had in recent weeks after earlier injury concerns. Sometimes he took off before a throw had a chance to develop. Whether Leavitt sits in the pocket or keeps looking for open grass against a Texas defense that closed out Missouri in the 4th quarter will decide a lot of how this game goes.
Saturday's 31-13 loss to Alabama was uglier on the scoreboard than it was on the field. LSU turned it over on downs 3 times in Alabama territory, twice inside the 10, and threw an interception on Bama's side of the field as well. Jackson Harris caught 11 balls for 166 yards on 18 targets. The run game was the problem. Dilin Jones managed 56 yards on 17 carries, and without that ground game every short-yardage call turned into a guess. For the Lane Kiffin offense to look like itself, it has to stop leaving points at the goal line.
Texas got some help in Columbia, and it's fair to say so. Missouri lost 5 replay reviews, including a pass that was ruled a fumble and recovered by Texas. The Longhorns still had to finish drives, and they did. Raleek Brown ran for 85 yards and scored the clinching touchdown. The sportsbooks have LSU as a home favorite despite the AP gap between the 2 teams, which says plenty about what the market thinks of Saturday night in Baton Rouge.
Both teams have losses that look alike. Texas dropped back-to-back 24-27 games to Oklahoma on the road and Florida at home before winning 3 straight over Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri. LSU's other loss was a 35-34 thriller at Kentucky, and outside of that and Alabama the Tigers have handled their business, including a 38-17 win at Auburn. Both teams also beat Mississippi State: LSU won 31-0 and Texas won 31-3. In other words, neither of these teams gets blown out. Their losses come in close games.
Weather won't be a factor. The forecast calls for 61 degrees, clear skies and a 7 mph breeze, so the game will come down to execution. LSU has to finish in the red zone and find some kind of run game so Leavitt doesn't have to carry the offense with his legs. Texas has to protect Manning and keep playing second halves the way it did at Missouri. Whoever handles the short-field snaps better probably walks out of Tiger Stadium with the win.
McNeese63-14