Texas is playing with a chip on its shoulder after getting left out of the Playoff as the preseason No. 1. Missouri's showing up with a brand-new offense and a lot to prove in its own building.
Bush’s Picks
TEXMIZ
TEXMIZ
OverUnder
Best BetTexas
Texas brings the deeper, more proven roster into this one, headlined by a quarterback who finished last season playing like a Heisman contender. Missouri's defense took real personnel losses this offseason, and until Simmons and this retooled offense prove themselves against SEC-caliber competition, the safer outright pick is the team with the returning star.
Texas
+Arch Manning closed 2025 on a heater
+Preseason ranked No. 2 nationally
+Added portal talent at RB, WR, OT, CB
−Finished 90th in FBS rushing in 2025
−New DC Muschamp untested in that role at Texas
−Missed CFP as preseason No. 1 after 3 losses
Missouri
+Overhauled offense with transfer playmakers Lee, Goodie
+New OC Chip Lindsey has multiple P4 coordinator stops
+Home game in Columbia in November
−Lost multiple defensive starters this offseason
−Simmons unproven as a full-season starter
−Oddsmakers set win total at just 6.5
This one's a study in contrasts at quarterback. Arch Manning is back for what could be his final year in Austin, and after a rough start to 2025 he closed the season on an absolute heater — 11 touchdowns against just 1 interception over his last five games before torching Michigan in the Cheez-It Bowl. Missouri counters with Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss transfer who finally won the QB1 job this offseason after Beau Pribula left for Virginia. Simmons is a different kind of playmaker than Pribula, but he's also never been the full-time guy for a full season.
Missouri didn't just change quarterbacks — it blew up the whole offensive staff. Eli Drinkwitz brought in Chip Lindsey to call plays and Garrett Riley to coach the position, pairing Simmons with transfer pass-catchers Cayden Lee and Caleb Goodie to try to modernize an attack that leaned too hard on the run game a year ago. Texas made its own change on the other side of the ball, firing defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and bringing in Will Muschamp, who helped Georgia win back-to-back titles. Both programs are betting on new coordinators to fix what didn't work last fall.
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TEX Texas
MIZ Missouri
The bigger question for Missouri is whether the defense can hold up its end. The Tigers lost a chunk of last year's production on that side of the ball, and oddsmakers have pegged their season win total at just 6.5 — a sign of how much turnover this roster has gone through. Texas, meanwhile, still needs its offensive line and running game to look nothing like the unit that finished 90th nationally in rushing last season, even with transfers Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers in the backfield.
Texas Longhorns
Oct 30?vs Mississippi State—
Oct 16?vs Florida—
Oct 10?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 26?@ Tennessee—
Sep 19?vs UTSA—
Sep 12?vs Ohio State—
Sep 5?vs Texas State—
Missouri Tigers
Oct 30?@ Arkansas—
Oct 16?@ Ole Miss—
Oct 9?vs Texas A&M—
Oct 2?vs Florida—
Sep 25?@ Mississippi State—
Sep 19?vs Troy—
Sep 11?@ Kansas—
Sep 3?vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff—
Recent form.
Texas arrives in Columbia as the more finished product on paper — a preseason top-2 team nationally with a returning star quarterback and a defensive coordinator with a championship pedigree. Missouri is the wild card, stacking new pieces onto an offense that hasn't taken a real-game snap together yet, in a building that's historically tough on visitors in November.
Texas Longhorns
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Missouri Tigers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Whichever way it breaks, this is a proving-ground game for both coordinators' offseason bets — Muschamp trying to answer for Texas's 2025 flameout, Lindsey and Riley trying to prove Missouri's offense can hang with the SEC's best.
