Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners

Oct 10, 20262:30 PM CTABCDallas, TX
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: No. 1 Texas is 4-0 and hasn't looked comfortable in the games that mattered. Oklahoma is 2-2, and its coach just admitted he thought about benching his quarterback at halftime. They meet at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, October 10.

Week 6 · 10/10, 2:30 PM CTABC
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No. 1 Texas (4-0) has won its big games by 1 and 3 points on the strength of a ferocious pass rush, while Manning's passing has been quiet. Oklahoma (2-2) has scored 14 or fewer in 3 of 4 games against teams other than UTEP, and Venables openly weighed benching Mateer after 3 straight turnovers against Georgia. The game in Dallas likely comes down to whether Mateer can hold up against a Texas front that just recorded 10 sacks. No betting line has been posted yet.

Texas Longhorns
  • Simmons 5 sacks, defense had 10 at Tennessee
  • Found ways to close 1-score games vs Ohio State, Tennessee
  • Opponent QB turned it over 3 straight drives
  • Manning 0 TD, 1 INT at Tennessee
  • Smothers, Townsend, McCutcheon, Goosby all questionable
  • Hasn't put away quality opponents
Oklahoma Sooners
  • Mateer threw 2 TDs even in the Georgia loss
  • Texas' big wins have all been 1-score games
  • Mateer 3 turnovers in 1 quarter vs Georgia
  • 10, 14, 13 points in 3 of 4 games
  • WR T. Harris out with no timetable

The quarterback matchup is where this one starts. Arch Manning got the win at Tennessee but not much else, going 14-of-19 for 201 yards with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. According to the Statesman, that was only the second time he's been held without a touchdown as Texas' starter. Across the field, John Mateer is coming off the worst half of his Oklahoma career. He turned it over on 3 straight second-quarter drives against Georgia, the Bulldogs led 28-0 at the break, and Brent Venables said afterward that benching him had been discussed.

The Georgia box score has a stat line of 25-of-34, 231 yards and 2 touchdowns, which looks respectable until you count the 1 interception and 2 lost fumbles. One of those fumbles went back 85 yards for a Chris Cole touchdown. Venables called his quarterback's confidence "bruised," and the biggest question in Norman over the next 2 weeks is how he handles that. Texas has its own availability worries. Running back H. Smothers, tight end N. Townsend, receiver D. McCutcheon and guard T. Goosby are all questionable, so the offense Manning leads into Dallas could be missing pieces.

There's no line up yet, so the matchup has to carry the preview. That matchup starts with a Texas defensive front that just wrecked a game. Colin Simmons had 5 sacks at Neyland, tying the program's single-game record, and Texas finished with 10 as a team. Now that front gets a quarterback who just gave the ball away 3 times in 1 quarter. If Oklahoma can't protect Mateer, it's hard to see how the Sooners stay in this.

09/26W@#15 Tennessee20-17
09/20WvsUTSA30-6
09/12Wvs#5 Ohio State24-23
09/05WvsTexas State59-7
09/26L@#2 Georgia13-41
09/19WvsNew Mexico14-6
09/12L@Michigan10-17
09/05WvsUTEP51-0

Texas' record is spotless, and the margins aren't. The Longhorns beat Ohio State 24-23 and got out of Knoxville 20-17. Tennessee scored a touchdown with 1:22 left, recovered the onside kick and got a Hail Mary off before it was batted away. Raleek Brown's 4-yard fourth-quarter score was the only reason Texas had any breathing room. Against good teams, this offense has been grinding out wins and letting the defense close.

Oklahoma's problem is scoring. Outside the 51-0 opener against UTEP, the Sooners have put up 10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico and 13 at Georgia. They've already lost receiver T. Harris to a back injury with no timetable to return. Linebacker K. Lewis has been listed questionable with a knee. That's a thin offense running into the front that just sacked Tennessee 10 times.

Here's the case for Oklahoma. Texas hasn't been able to pull away from anyone with a pulse, and a neutral-site rivalry game is exactly where a low-scoring, turnover-driven upset happens. For that, Mateer has to look nothing like he did in Athens. If he looks the same, Simmons and the Texas front should decide this one early.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners — Colin Simmons and the Texas Pass Rush Meet John Mateer in Dallas | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush