Boise State's first home game in a brand-new conference lands on Halloween night against a Texas State team that spent the offseason rebuilding half its roster through the portal.
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TXSTBOIS
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Best BetBoise State
Boise State is the side to trust here. A senior quarterback, a proven run game, and three straight Mountain West titles worth of culture stack up well against a Texas State team still figuring out its own quarterback room after multiple transfers out. This reads like a spot where the more stable program should just be the better football team.
Texas State
+Kinne has delivered 3 of program's 4 ever winning seasons
+Portal additions at DL and LB add fresh depth
+Pac-12 jump could galvanize a hungry program
−Lost both projected QB options (Luster, Geriner) to portal
−Defensive line lost 3 contributors to Baylor, Clemson, FSU
−Only 3 bowl trips in 14 years at the FBS level
Boise State
+3 straight Mountain West titles, proven winning culture
+Senior QB Madsen returns behind a run-first attack
+Home crowd for their own Pac-12 debut
−Leading receivers Caples and Penry gone, Marshall to Arkansas
−Loses versatile defender Ty Benefield to LSU
−No track record yet at power-conference level
Boise State brings back senior Maddux Madsen to run a ground-and-pound attack behind Dylan Riley and a deep backfield, while Texas State's quarterback room got scrambled in the portal — Keldric Luster left for Ball State, Holden Geriner for Pitt, and Boston College transfer Shaker Reisig now has to sort out QB1 duties for a program playing in a new league for the first time.
The bigger issue for Texas State might be up front. The Bobcats lost three defensive line contributors to the portal this offseason — Kamren Washington to Baylor, Devarrick Woods to Clemson, Jordan Sanders to Florida State — and are leaning on transfers Kaleb James and Chancellor Owens to plug the gap fast. Boise's losses trend more toward star power than volume, with do-everything defender Ty Benefield off to LSU, but the receiving corps replacing Latrell Caples and Chase Penry with JUCO transfer Akeem Wright is still an unknown walking into a new conference.
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TXST Texas State
BOIS Boise State
Zoom out and this is really two programs stepping into the unknown together. Both teams are Pac-12 newcomers this fall — Boise State after three straight Mountain West titles, Texas State after 13 years in the Sun Belt — and San Marcos to Boise is one of the rougher travel asks on either team's new-look schedule. For Texas State, it's also just the latest stop on a trip-heavy slate that includes Oregon State and a home date with Colorado State.
Texas State Bobcats
Oct 15?vs Colorado State—
Oct 3?@ San Diego State—
Sep 26?vs Incarnate Word—
Sep 19?vs North Texas—
Sep 12?vs UTSA—
Sep 5?@ Texas—
Boise State Broncos
Oct 10?@ Fresno State—
Oct 3?vs Utah State—
Sep 25?@ Western Michigan—
Sep 19?vs South Dakota—
Sep 12?vs Memphis—
Sep 5?@ Oregon—
Recent form.
Boise's identity hasn't changed even with the league jump. Riley ran for over 1,100 yards and 12 total touchdowns a year ago, and with fellow back Gaines adding another 800-plus yards, head coach Spencer Danielson has said the plan is to stay run-first no matter who's lining up across from them. Texas State, under fourth-year coach G.J. Kinne, has actually built a track record of overachieving — three of the program's four winning seasons in 14 years at the FBS level have come under him — but he's rarely had to replace this much of a two-deep at once.
Texas State Bobcats
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Boise State Broncos
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
None of that portal churn screams disaster for either side just yet — it's July, and rosters still have months to gel before Halloween night rolls around. But on paper, Boise State walks in with the deeper culture, the returning quarterback, and a defense that lost pieces rather than entire position groups, while Texas State is asking a lot of new faces in their first trip into power-conference country.
