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Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos

Oct 31, 20269:00 PM CTCWBoise, ID
By JR·2 min read
Texas State(4-3)
#20 Boise State(6-1)
9:00 PM

TLDR: Boise State is 3-0 in Pac-12 play and Texas State is 2-1, so the Bobcats' Halloween trip to the blue turf decides who's chasing whom in the league. The Bobcats score in bunches, and the Broncos have won 5 straight.

SAT 10/31, 9:00 PM CT · Week 9CW
Texas State
(4-3)
WWLWW
20Boise State
(6-1)
WWWWW
Kickoff 49°10 mph

Boise State (6-1, 3-0 Pac-12) hosts Texas State (4-3, 2-1) on Halloween with first place in the league at stake. Boise has won 5 straight behind a run game that closed out Washington State with a 21-0 fourth quarter. Texas State's offense can put up 60 but managed just 20 against a Utah State team Boise beat by 19. The game likely turns on whether the Bobcats' defense, which has allowed 30-plus twice in its last 5, can slow the Broncos on the ground.

Texas State Bobcats
  • Put up 66 on Colorado State and 63 on Incarnate Word
  • Only loss in last 5 was a 2-point road game
  • Held to 20 at home by a 2-5 Utah State team
  • Allowed 35 and 31 in 2 of last 5
  • Two tight ends on the injury report, one listed out
Boise State Broncos
  • Riley ran for 128 yards and 2 TDs at Washington State
  • 21-0 fourth quarter shows they wear teams down late
  • Beat common opponent Utah State 37-18 at home

Start with the run game, because that's how Boise State closed out its last game. Dylan Riley ran for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 13 carries at Washington State, and Maddux Madsen didn't have to do much more than manage it: 14-of-23 for 149 yards and a touchdown, no picks. The Broncos lean on that formula, and Texas State has given up 35 to North Texas and 31 to San Diego State in its last 5 games, so it's the first thing the Bobcats have to answer.

The game in Pullman was closer than the final score. Boise State was in a dogfight through 3 quarters, then outscored the Cougars 21-0 in the fourth to win 31-10. You can read that 2 ways. It shows a team that wears opponents down late, or it shows a team that needed a full half of clean football before it pulled away from a middling Washington State team. Texas State will have watched the first 3 quarters and paid less attention to the fourth.

Texas State's offense is a lot of fun when it gets going. The Bobcats hung 63 on Incarnate Word, 66 on Colorado State and 49 on North Texas. Then they scored 20 at home against Utah State, the same Aggies team Boise State beat 37-18 in its own building. That common opponent is the most useful data point on the page, and it doesn't flatter the Bobcats.

Texas State Bobcats
(4-3)
10/24WvsUtah State20-17
10/16WvsColorado State66-27
10/04L@San Diego State29-31
09/26WvsIncarnate Word63-10
09/19WvsNorth Texas49-35
20Boise State Broncos
(6-1)
10/24W@Washington State31-10
10/11W@Fresno State38-31
10/03WvsUtah State37-18
09/26W@Western Michigan32-7
09/20WvsSouth Dakota38-24

To be fair to Texas State, the 20-17 win over Utah State still counted, and it moved the Bobcats to 2-1 in the league. Their only loss in the last 5 was a 31-29 road game at San Diego State, so they can play close games away from San Marcos. The problem is that Boise State's version of close is the Fresno State game, a 38-31 road win. The Broncos have found a way to win every week since September.

Boise State's injury report is empty. Texas State's report is all at tight end: C. Snodgrass has been out with an undisclosed injury since the start of October, and B. Smith is questionable with a foot problem. Neither report is fresh, so check again before Saturday. If both are still out, the Bobcats are thin at a spot that matters for blocking against a Boise front that just held Washington State to 10.

The early forecast for Albertsons Stadium is clear, mid-40s and close to calm, which is good football weather for a night game in late October. It's a long way from San Marcos to Boise, and the Broncos are unbeaten in conference play. Texas State has the offense to make this a shootout. To do it, the Bobcats have to look more like the team that put 66 on Colorado State than the one that scraped past Utah State.

Texas State vs. Boise State: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 31) — Texas State Brings Its Track-Meet Offense Into Boise's Blue Fortress