The Pac-12's newest member gets its first look at conference life on the road, and it's walking straight into one of the rebuild jobs the new league inherited.
Bush’s Picks
TXSTORST
TXSTORST
OverUnder
Best BetTexas State
Texas State walks in with a sophomore quarterback who just ran one of the nation's most productive offenses and a coaching staff with 3 straight bowl wins on its resume. Oregon State is still sorting out its quarterback room and fired its own coach in-season a year ago. Until the Beavers show they've fixed what sank 2025, back the more established program to win on the road.
Texas State
+Sophomore QB Jackson fresh off breakout, elite production
+3 straight bowl wins under Kinne
+Loaded up defensive front with size, transfers
−Lost top back Lincoln Pare, backfield in flux
−Presumed starter Burrell no longer on the team
−First real road test in a brand-new league
Oregon State
+New DC MacIntyre brings experience, veteran leadership
+Added portal receivers to surround Murphy
+Defense held foes to 33% on 3rd down
−Fired coach mid-2025 season after a 2-10 finish
−Thin O-line/D-line, lost Strand to Auburn
−Turnover-prone: just 9 takeaways, 11 empty red-zone trips
This is a first-ever meeting between these two programs, set for Saturday, November 7 in Corvallis, and it exists purely because realignment tossed both schools into the same conference overnight. Oregon State hands the keys to Maalik Murphy, a 5th-year senior who threw for 1,805 yards with a 9-8 TD-to-INT ratio during a miserable 2-10 season — the kind of numbers that got the previous coaching staff fired mid-year. Across the field, sophomore Brad Jackson enters year 2 running an offense that averaged 473 yards per game a season ago, 5th-most in the country. That gap is what this game is actually built around.
Oregon State brought in defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre and a haul of transfer receivers — Aaron Butler, Aeryn Hampton, Xayvion Noland — to give Murphy actual weapons, and the Beavers' defense did hold opponents to a 33% conversion rate on 3rd down last year. Texas State, meanwhile, has to replace running back Lincoln Pare and sort out a backfield after presumed starter Greg Burrell left the team, but coach G.J. Kinne has now won 3 straight bowl games and doesn't act like a guy worried about replacing parts.
Show fees
9:30 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
TXST Texas State
ORST Oregon State
Both programs are treating this Pac-12 launch as a reset. Oregon State is starting over under brand-new coach JaMarcus Shephard, while Texas State arrives under a staff that's already proven it can win bowl games with less name recognition than most of its new conference mates. That contrast in program trajectory is the real story here, more than anything on the odds board.
Texas State Bobcats
Oct 31?@ Boise State—
Oct 15?vs Colorado State—
Oct 3?@ San Diego State—
Sep 26?vs Incarnate Word—
Sep 19?vs North Texas—
Sep 12?vs UTSA—
Sep 5?@ Texas—
Oregon State Beavers
Oct 30?@ Fresno State—
Oct 17?vs Washington State—
Oct 10?vs San Diego State—
Oct 3?@ Colorado State—
Sep 26?@ UTEP—
Sep 19?vs Montana—
Sep 12?vs Texas Tech—
Sep 5?@ Houston—
Recent form.
Where this tips is in the trenches and on the back end. Oregon State forced only 9 turnovers all of last season and left 11 trips inside the 20-yard line without points — the kind of self-inflicted stuff that turns a competitive game into a blowout. Texas State spent its offseason loading up the defensive front with transfers, including 308-pound tackle Phillip Bradford, who racked up 15.5 tackles for loss last year. If the Bobcats' front holds up, Oregon State's turnover problem could get worse before it gets better.
Kinne has already proven his program can hang with better-resourced competition. Shephard is still trying to prove his can avoid the mistakes that sank 2025. On paper, that's not a fair fight yet.
