TLDR: San Diego State opened its first Pac-12 season by hanging 53 on Portland State, and nothing has gone right since. Texas State flies to Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday, October 3 with a team that can put up points and a defense nobody would call settled.
Texas State visits a San Diego State team that has lost 3 straight and scored 39 points in those games after a 53-20 opener. The Bobcats rely on Davian Jackson and a scoring offense, while the Aztecs have Javion Kinnard's running and an unsettled quarterback spot between Jayden Denegal and Draiden Trudeau. Whether San Diego State can control the clock or Texas State turns it into a shootout decides this one.
+Home at Snapdragon, where they beat Portland State by 33
−39 points total across the 3-game skid
−Trudeau's Toledo snaps cloud the QB picture
−Lost 41-16 at Toledo
Start with the Aztecs' quarterback situation, because it isn't settled. Jayden Denegal has started most of the year for Sean Lewis, but Draiden Trudeau got into the Toledo game, and a week before a home date that looks like a coach still deciding who runs his offense. On the other side, G.J. Kinne's Bobcats already know what they are. Davian Jackson ran for 4 touchdowns in the 49-35 win over North Texas, the last one a 57-yarder late in the 4th quarter that put the game away. Texas State wins by moving the ball and outscoring people.
San Diego State's problem is the offense, not effort. After the 53-20 opener, the Aztecs scored 10 at UCLA, 13 at home against James Madison and 16 in a 41-16 loss at Toledo. That's 3 straight losses and 39 total points as of this weekend. Javion Kinnard is the one reliable piece: 181 rushing yards against JMU, in a game San Diego State still lost by 13. The Bobcats come in as the road favorite, and after that month it's easy to see why.
Texas State hasn't been clean either. The year opened with a 59-7 beating in Austin and a home loss to UTSA, and the Bobcats sat at 1-2 before hosting FCS Incarnate Word at UFCU Stadium this past Saturday. That North Texas shootout is Texas State at its best, and it also shows the catch: a defense that gave up 35 in a win and 59 to Texas hasn't earned any trust yet.
So here's the matchup. San Diego State wants to lean on Kinnard, shorten the game and keep Jackson on the sideline. Texas State wants the kind of track meet the Aztecs haven't come close to keeping up with since week 1. Whoever sets the pace probably wins it. If the Aztecs can't get their quarterback play sorted in the next 6 days, they'll be chasing all night.
The stakes also carry into October. This week is the Aztecs' last stop before a stretch that goes to Oregon State, then brings Fresno State home and heads to Colorado State. Another home loss would turn a new-conference debut year into a salvage job. Texas State has a real chance to get its road form going against a team that's lost 3 straight. Early forecasts call for a clear, hot day in San Diego, but that's still a week-out read.
Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs — Texas State Heads West to Find a Reeling San Diego State | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
