San Diego State and Texas State both spent the offseason packing for a new conference — now they get an early measuring-stick against each other before Pac-12 play even starts.
Bush’s Picks
TXSTSDSU
TXSTSDSU
OverUnder
Best BetSan Diego State
San Diego State's 9-win 2025 and its perfect home mark give it the clearer form edge heading into a season where both teams are adjusting to a new conference. Texas State's own turnaround is real, but it was built on close, grind-it-out finishes rather than the kind of dominant stretches the Aztecs strung together. Back the home side here.
Texas State
+Won 3 straight bowl games under G.J. Kinne
+Closed 2025 on a 3-game winning streak
+Sparks and Dawn Jr. give Jackson proven targets
−Started 2025 at just 3-6
−Lead back Burrell recovering from shoulder surgery
−4 losses last year came by 7 points or less
San Diego State
+Went 9-4 with program's largest win jump ever
+Perfect 6-0 at home in 2025
+4 best receivers and RB Lucky Sutton return
−Only 1 returning starter in the secondary
−Lost defensive coordinator Rob Aurich to Nebraska
−Denegal was banged up late last season
This one's less about history and more about a shared identity crisis nobody's mad about: both programs are stepping into the Pac-12 for the first time this fall, and neither wants to spend its first taste of the new league looking overmatched. Jayden Denegal is back under center for San Diego State after a banged-up finish to 2025, while Brad Jackson returns for Texas State off a season that started ugly and ended with 3 straight wins to close it out. Two quarterbacks trying to prove last year's flashes were the real thing, not the ceiling.
The bigger swing factor might be what's missing rather than what's back. Texas State's presumptive lead back, Greg Burrell, is working back from offseason shoulder surgery and wasn't full-go this spring, which puts extra weight on Jackson and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. to carry the offense early. San Diego State's question mark is on the other side of the ball — the Aztecs are replacing almost their entire secondary, with Dalesean Staley the lone returning starter back there after a defensive coordinator change sent Rob Aurich to Nebraska.
Show fees
9:30 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
TXST Texas State
SDSU San Diego State
Both sides enter with real momentum to lean on, though. San Diego State turned in the biggest single-season win jump in program history last year and didn't lose at Snapdragon Stadium all season. Texas State has now won 3 straight bowl games under G.J. Kinne, the latest a 41-10 beatdown of Rice, proof this program finishes seasons better than it starts them.
Texas State Bobcats
Sep 26?vs Incarnate Word—
Sep 19?vs North Texas—
Sep 12?vs UTSA—
Sep 5?@ Texas—
San Diego State Aztecs
Sep 25?@ Toledo—
Sep 19?vs James Madison—
Sep 12?@ UCLA—
Sep 5?vs Portland State—
Recent form.
That home dominance is the crux of San Diego State's case — a 6-0 mark at Snapdragon last season wasn't a fluke, it was a program identity, and Denegal gets a receiving corps back that's deeper than the one that got him to 9 wins. Texas State's counter is that its four losses in 2025 came by 7 points or less, meaning this isn't a team that gets blown out even when it loses — it's a team that finds ways to be in games, then finds ways to close them out late in the year.
Texas State Bobcats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
San Diego State Aztecs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Neither roster is fully settled this early, and that's the honest read on a game still months out — Burrell's shoulder and San Diego State's overhauled secondary are both things to track as fall camp plays out. But as a first impression of what these two programs look like in a new league, this is exactly the kind of game a neutral fan should want to see: two teams that spent last year building something, both determined not to waste the head start.
