Texas kicks off its redemption tour in Austin, and after missing the CFP by inches last year, they picked about as gentle a landing spot as college football offers.
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Best BetTexas
There's basically no scenario where Texas State walks out of Austin with a win here — this is a Power 4 roster against a program still adjusting to life in a new conference. The moneyline offers no real value on the favorite, but backing the Longhorns outright is about as safe as picks get in Week 1. The only path to an upset would be a wildly sloppy Manning outing, and nothing from his track record suggests that's likely.
Texas State
+Brad Jackson is a legit dual-threat sophomore arm
+First look at a fresh Pac-12 slate
+Kinne has delivered most of program's winning seasons
−Presumptive starting RB Greg Burrell currently off roster
−New DC Will Windham untested at this level
−CFN projects just a 5-7 season overall
Texas
+Arch Manning back for a full season as starter
+Several offensive starters return plus portal reinforcements
+Heisman-caliber season expected in Sarkisian's system
−Manning's spring reps limited by foot surgery
−2025 team let a 4-8 Florida squad beat them
−Missed the CFP entirely despite a 9-3 finish
Arch Manning is back for a full season as the guy, and that alone makes this opener worth circling. He threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions in his first year as a starter, and Sarkisian has built the offense around him with several starters returning and fresh faces added through the portal. The only hiccup: minor foot surgery limited his spring reps, though the staff has been careful rather than concerned about his readiness for Saturday, September 5.
Texas State arrives as the new kid in a new league. After 13 years in the Sun Belt, the Bobcats jump to the Pac-12 this fall under fourth-year coach G.J. Kinne, who's already delivered three of the program's four winning seasons and all three of its bowl appearances. Sophomore Brad Jackson gives them a legitimate dual-threat weapon under center, but the backfield picture is messy — presumptive lead back Greg Burrell is currently off the roster, and a new defensive coordinator in Will Windham is getting his first look at SEC-level talent right out of the gate.
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None of that stacks up well against a Texas team still stinging from how 2025 unraveled. The Longhorns opened last season with a 14-7 loss to Ohio State, got run off the field by 25 at Georgia, and then let a 4-8 Florida team beat them 29-21 — the loss that ultimately sank their playoff case at 9-3. Manning and this offense have every incentive to come out with something to prove.
Texas State Bobcats
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College Football News projects Texas State for a 5-7 season, and that math starts with buy games like this one against a roster with far more talent and far more depth. Kinne's staff will treat this as an evaluation trip more than a real shot at an upset, especially with harder Pac-12 road trips to places like Boise and Corvallis still ahead on the schedule.
Texas State Bobcats
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Texas Longhorns
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
For Texas, the storyline is less about the opponent and more about how sharp Manning and the offense look right out of the chute. A clean, mistake-free performance here would go a long way toward settling any lingering questions from last year's late-season stumbles before conference play gets serious.
