The reigning Big 12 champs roll into Stillwater to face a Cowboys team that barely resembles the one that got run off the field a year ago.
Bush’s Picks
TTUOKST
TTUOKST
OverUnder
Best BetTexas Tech
Texas Tech brings a Big 12 title, a CFP appearance and one of the deepest rosters in the country into a building Oklahoma State program that just went 1-11. The Red Raiders are the easy side to back straight up here even with a QB question mark, simply because the overall talent gap is that wide. Oklahoma State's near-total roster overhaul is a real long-term story, but it's not one that typically pays off in year one against this level of competition.
Texas Tech
+Won Big 12 outright, reached the CFP in 2025
+Elite NIL spending, deep roster across positions
+RB trio Dickey, Williams, Joyner all return
−Lost starting QB Sorsby to eligibility issue
−Lost 9 players to 2026 NFL Draft, 6 defenders
−Hasn't beaten Oklahoma State since 2008
Oklahoma State
+New coach Eric Morris brought near-total roster overhaul
+Transfer QB Mestemaker threw for 4,379 yards at North Texas
+Won last two meetings with Tech in Lubbock
−Finished 1-11 in 2025, worst season since 1991
−Roster almost entirely new, unproven cohesion
−Fired longtime coach Gundy mid-season amid program turmoil
Texas Tech didn't just win the Big 12 in 2025 — the Red Raiders won it outright for the first time since Eisenhower was in office, then rode that into a College Football Playoff berth against No. 5 Oregon. That's the standard Joey McGuire has built in Lubbock, and it's why Tech opens 2026 as one of the favorites to get right back to a title game against BYU. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is starting over completely.
The Cowboys fired Mike Gundy in September 2025 after 21 years, and the fallout was brutal — an 0-9 finish under interim coach Doug Meacham left Oklahoma State at 1-11, its worst season since 1991. New head coach Eric Morris came over from North Texas and basically gutted the roster, bringing in somewhere around 80 to 85 new players, roughly 60 of them through the portal. That's not a tweak. That's a full teardown and rebuild in one offseason.
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TTU Texas Tech
OKST Oklahoma State
Morris didn't come alone — he brought his North Texas quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns there. If that production travels to the Big 12, it gives Stillwater something to actually build around after a year with nothing to hang onto. Texas Tech has its own QB situation to sort out after transfer Brendan Sorsby's exit amid an eligibility issue tied to a gambling-addiction disclosure, which knocked the Red Raiders out of some top-10 preseason polls even with the roster around that spot largely intact.
None of that changes the gap in overall firepower. Tech spent north of $28 million on its 2025 roster — second nationally behind only Texas — and heads into 2026 with a reported NIL war chest near $55 million spread across a deep boosters' pool. The backfield alone tells the story: Cameron Dickey, J'Koby Williams and Quinten Joyner are all back after last year's 27.1-point average margin of victory in Big 12 play. Oklahoma State simply isn't fielding that level of returning talent, no matter how promising Morris's portal haul looks on paper.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Nov 6?vs West Virginia—
Oct 30?vs Arizona—
Oct 23?@ Cincinnati—
Oct 16?vs Arizona State—
Oct 2?@ Colorado—
Sep 25?vs Sam Houston—
Sep 18?vs Houston—
Sep 12?@ Oregon State—
Sep 5?vs Abilene Christian—
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Nov 6?@ Kansas State—
Oct 30?@ Iowa State—
Oct 23?vs Colorado—
Oct 16?@ Houston—
Oct 9?vs UCF—
Sep 25?@ West Virginia—
Sep 19?vs Murray State—
Sep 12?vs Oregon—
Sep 5?@ Tulsa—
Recent form.
History actually cuts against the favorite here. Oklahoma State has owned this series lately, winning the last two meetings in Lubbock, and Texas Tech hasn't beaten the Cowboys since 2008 — a genuinely strange stat given how lopsided the programs look on paper right now. Whether that trend means anything with essentially two new rosters and a first-year OSU staff is a fair question, but it's the kind of thing that keeps this from being an automatic chalk pick.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Oklahoma State Cowboys
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Six Texas Tech players still made USA Today's preseason all-Big 12 defense despite losing nine players to the 2026 NFL Draft, which tells you the cupboard isn't bare even after all that draft attrition. For Oklahoma State, the whole season is going to be about how fast a nearly brand-new roster can gel under a first-year staff — and whether Mestemaker's production at North Texas holds up against tougher competition. This one won't decide the Big 12 race, but it's an early look at where the Cowboys' rebuild actually stands.
