Ball State is starting over, again. Mike Uremovich's group hasn't cracked 4 wins in 3 straight seasons, and 2025 opened with an ugly 31-0 loss to a Purdue team that finished 2-10. The offensive line was part of the problem, surrendering the third-most tackles for loss and second-most sacks per game in the FBS. The fix, on paper, is two transfer quarterbacks — Texas State's Keldric Luster and Concord's Tyler Mizzell — battling it out, with an O-line that at least brings back experienced bodies even if last year's results were rough.
The head-to-head history isn't kind to Ball State right now. Toledo closed out last season's home slate by dropping 38 on the Cardinals in a 38-9 rout, with Tucker Gleason throwing 4 touchdown passes in a game that mattered for Toledo's MAC title push. That kind of margin doesn't guarantee anything 10 months later with new coordinators and new quarterbacks on both sides, but it's the most recent data point anyone has on this series, and it lines up with where each program currently sits.
Ball State's defense is the bigger question mark heading into the fall. The Cardinals have the third-lowest returning production on that side of the ball in the FBS, which is why the coaching staff went out and grabbed size in Power Four transfers Ka'Shawn Thomas, Keilan Smith, Kendrick Gilbert and Jared Badie. Whether that group gels in time to slow down a Toledo offense with a proven line and a more athletic secondary opposite it is the swing factor for how competitive this one actually is.
College Football News projects Toledo at 8-4 this fall, which tracks with a program that feels like it's owed something after last year's snub. Ball State, meanwhile, is still looking for its first real signs of life under Uremovich. Until the Cardinals show they can protect the passer and get stops, the Rockets are the team to build a game plan around beating.