Sacramento State signed up for the deep end when it jumped to FBS, and Toledo is exactly the kind of program that makes that jump feel bottomless.
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TOLSAC
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Best BetToledo
Toledo brings a decade of MAC stability and one of the league's best transfer hauls into a building that's still figuring out what FBS football even looks like. Sacramento State's got a veteran quarterback in Carson Conklin, but a first-time Division I head coach and a nearly full roster overhaul are heavy variables against a program that hasn't had a losing season since 2009. Back the Rockets here.
+Portal additions like Sharman, Patterson add experience
+No Power Four games make some wins reachable
−First-time Division I head coach in Alonzo Carter
−Nearly full roster overhaul entering FBS
−Projected as low as 3-9 in debut season
There's no pitching matchup here, just two programs on wildly different trajectories. Toledo has been the model of MAC stability for nearly two decades, and even with a coaching change at the top, the roster overhaul that came with it was built to keep that machine running. Sacramento State, meanwhile, is trying to build a plane while flying it, mid-transition from FCS life into a league that doesn't care about your learning curve.
The Rockets haven't had a losing season since 2009 and have banked three MAC championships in that stretch, so the bar in Toledo isn't just competing, it's contending. New head coach Mike Jacobs inherited a program from Jason Candle after a decade of steady success, and rather than rebuild, Toledo went out and reloaded, bringing in a transfer class with 11 players who earned all-conference honors elsewhere, headlined by Andrew Zock, last season's FCS Defensive Player of the Year. Quarterback John Alan Richter is back too, giving Jacobs a returning starter even if his overall body of work is still thin.
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TOL Toledo
SAC Sacramento State
Sacramento State's story is the more compelling one, even if it's not the safer bet. First-year head coach Alonzo Carter, promoted out of an associate head coach role at Arizona, is running his first Division I program, and he's doing it with a roster that turned over almost entirely to make the FBS jump viable. Veteran quarterback Carson Conklin, who started his career at Sac State before a detour to Fresno State, is back to lead the operation and bring some experience to a locker room otherwise learning the level on the fly.
Toledo Rockets
Oct 16?@ Eastern Michigan—
Oct 9?vs Buffalo—
Oct 2?@ Ball State—
Sep 25?vs San Diego State—
Sep 19?vs Temple—
Sep 12?vs Central Connecticut—
Sep 4?@ Michigan State—
Sacramento State Hornets
Oct 30?vs Kent State—
Oct 16?vs Ohio—
Oct 9?@ Bowling Green—
Sep 25?vs Massachusetts—
Sep 19?vs North Dakota State—
Sep 12?@ Fresno State—
Sep 5?vs Mississippi Valley State—
Aug 29?@ Eastern Michigan—
Recent form.
By the Tuesday, November 3 date on the calendar, this Hornets team will have had two months of live FBS reps to find its footing, which matters against a MAC opponent that isn't going to hand out style points. Toledo's non-conference slate this season is regarded as one of the friendliest around, and its conference gauntlet isn't much tougher, with five of eight MAC opponents finishing last year with losing records. That's the backdrop against which Sacramento State, picked by some for as few as 3 wins in year one, has to find a way to compete.
None of that means Sac State should be written off entirely. Portal additions like Jackson Sharman out of Idaho State and Jaylen Patterson from New Mexico State give Carter pieces who've played meaningful snaps, even if not at this level, and every rep the Hornets bank against real MAC competition is worth something for a program building from scratch. Still, the gap between an established, reloaded contender and a program mid-transformation is usually the widest story on the schedule, and this looks like one of those nights where it shows.
