Troy is the team to beat in the Sun Belt West again. Arkansas State has the roster to say otherwise.
Bush’s Picks
TROYARST
TROYARST
OverUnder
Best BetArkansas State
Arkansas State getting the nod here is about roster verdict, not vibes: a league-high 7 preseason All-Sun Belt honorees says the talent gap with Troy is thinner than the coaches poll suggests. Troy still carries the front-runner tag, but that's built on returning quarterbacks who never separated last season and a brand-new offensive coordinator installing his system for the first time. At home in the finale, Arkansas State's proven playmakers are the safer bet to show up.
Troy
+Preseason Sun Belt West favorite, 12 of 14 votes
+Both 2025 starting QBs return
+Reigning division champion under Gerad Parker
−Finished last in Sun Belt in total offense in 2025
−New OC installing system with unresolved QB battle
−Lost key players to transfer portal this offseason
Arkansas State
+League-high 7 preseason All-Sun Belt first-teamers
+Butch Jones stability, 3 straight bowl trips
+Coming off Xbox Bowl win to close 2025
−Must replace 3-year starter Raynor with unproven transfer
−Picked only 3rd in West despite the talent
−Just 1 defensive player among preseason honorees
This one closes the regular season on Saturday, November 28, and by then it should mean something. Troy enters 2026 as the preseason favorite to repeat as Sun Belt West champs, picking up 12 of 14 possible first-place votes in the coaches poll. Gerad Parker is in year 3 and both quarterbacks who split time last season, Tucker Kilcrease and Goose Crowder, are back in the building.
The catch for Troy: that quarterback battle never actually resolved itself last year, and the offense around it was a problem. The Trojans finished last in the Sun Belt in total yards in 2025, which is why Parker went out and hired Adam Austin as offensive coordinator. New scheme, unsettled QB1, division-favorite expectations — that's a lot to sort out before this game even kicks off.
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TROY Troy
ARST Arkansas State
Arkansas State isn't hiding from this one either. Butch Jones is in year 6, the Red Wolves have been to three straight bowls, and they just knocked off Missouri State 34-28 in the Xbox Bowl to cap a 7-6 season. The roster reflects it: Arkansas State placed a league-high 7 players on the preseason All-Sun Belt first team, led by running back Kenyon Clay and receiver Chauncy Cobb, who made the cut at 3 different spots.
Troy Trojans
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Arkansas State Red Wolves
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Still, the voters picked Arkansas State 3rd in the West, behind Troy and Louisiana, and there's a reason beyond respect for the Trojans. Three-year starting quarterback Jaylen Raynor is gone, and Jones is sorting through 4 transfer candidates to replace him, with Texas transfer Trey Owens getting mentioned as the guy with the highest ceiling. That's the swing variable for this whole season, and by late November it should be settled one way or the other — for better or worse.
Troy Trojans
Nov 20?vs Georgia Southern—
Nov 13?@ South Alabama—
Nov 6?vs Louisiana Tech—
Oct 29?@ James Madison—
Oct 16?@ Louisiana—
Oct 6?vs Southern Miss—
Sep 26?@ Utah State—
Sep 19?@ Missouri—
Sep 12?vs Alabama State—
Sep 5?vs Sam Houston—
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Nov 20?@ Louisiana Tech—
Nov 13?@ Coastal Carolina—
Nov 7?vs UL Monroe—
Oct 16?@ Southern Miss—
Oct 8?vs South Alabama—
Oct 2?@ Louisiana—
Sep 26?vs Kennesaw State—
Sep 19?@ TCU—
Sep 12?vs West Georgia—
Sep 5?@ Memphis—
Recent form.
Zoom out and this is a rematch of last year's Sun Belt West race, with both programs believing they're better than their bowl results suggested. Troy's ceiling is division favorite if the QB room and new OC click. Arkansas State's ceiling is a talent-driven leap if the new quarterback is even average. A closing-week game between these 2 could easily double as a de facto West decider again.
