Troy rolls into Columbia with a rebuilt offense and no established starter, while Missouri debuts a transfer quarterback in front of a home crowd expecting more than 8-5.
Bush’s Picks
TROYMIZ
TROYMIZ
OverUnder
Best BetMissouri
Missouri brings a proven series edge, a healthier receiving corps, and more continuity into this one, while Troy is still sorting out its starting quarterback. That gap in certainty at the most important position is enough to lean Tigers here even before accounting for the talent and depth disparity.
Troy
+Returns both 2025 starting QBs in Kilcrease, Crowder
+New OC ran 42.4 ppg offense at Tarleton State
+Front seven brings more continuity than skill spots
−Lost leading rusher Tae Meadows to Auburn
−No returning receiver topped 250 yards last year
−Ranked last in Sun Belt in total yards in 2025
Missouri
+Added transfer playmakers Cayden Lee, Caleb Goodie
+Owns series 3-1, won last two meetings vs Troy
+New OC hires Lindsey, Riley to modernize attack
This one's a get-right spot dressed up as a trap game. Missouri's offense got a full facelift this offseason, bringing in Chip Lindsey and Garrett Riley to build around new QB1 Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss transfer who beat out the incumbents for the job. Troy, on the other hand, still hasn't settled its own quarterback race between Tucker Kilcrease and Goose Crowder, the two guys who split snaps a year ago.
Missouri's answer to "who throws Simmons the ball" came via the portal too — Cayden Lee, his old teammate at Ole Miss with over 100 career catches, and Cincinnati gamebreaker Caleb Goodie, who averaged 18 yards a pop last season. That's a real receiving corps for a first-year starter to lean on. Troy can't say the same: it doesn't return a single receiver who topped 250 yards last season, with Rara Thomas gone to the draft and DJ Epps off to West Virginia.
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TROY Troy
MIZ Missouri
The bigger swing for Troy is on the sideline. New offensive coordinator Adam Austin ran an FCS offense at Tarleton State that averaged 42.4 points a game last year — a sharp contrast from a Trojans unit that finished dead last in the Sun Belt in total yards in 2025. Whether that system translates against SEC size and speed in Week 3 is the real question mark heading into Columbia.
Troy Trojans
Sep 12?vs Alabama State—
Sep 5?vs Sam Houston—
Missouri Tigers
Sep 11?@ Kansas—
Sep 3?vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff—
Recent form.
History leans Mizzou's way. This is just the 5th meeting between the two programs, and the Tigers have won 3 of the first 4, including a 42-10 rout in Columbia back in 2019. Missouri also has more continuity up front and in the run game, even after losing a chunk of its defensive production from last year's 8-5 team that closed with a Gator Bowl loss to Virginia.
Troy Trojans
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Missouri Tigers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
For Troy, the appeal is the front seven — Gerad Parker's teams have generally been able to hang defensively even when the offense sputters, and that group returns more than the skill positions do. But asking a defense to bail out an offense that's still sorting out its starting quarterback, against a home team unveiling two new transfer playmakers, is a tall order for a Saturday matinee in the SEC.
