Troy has done the job required of a Sun Belt team in September: win the games in front of you. The Trojans held off Sam Houston 24-21 in the opener and then handled Alabama State 34-17, with Jaheim Merriweather running for 127 yards and 3 scores in that second game. Neither opponent tells Troy much about how it holds up against a roster with SEC size and depth at every level, which is exactly the question Missouri is built to ask.
Missouri hasn't had to sweat either of its first two games, and a home date against a Group of 5 opponent isn't likely to change that pattern. The market has priced this about as lopsided as a college football board gets this month, and there's little in either team's first two weeks to argue the gap is smaller than advertised.
What Troy actually has going for it is that it isn't a pushover program walking in overmatched and unprepared — Crowder and Merriweather give the Trojans a real offensive identity, and a defense that's forced enough stops to win two one-score-adjacent games. The issue is whether that identity survives contact with a roster this much deeper, at altitude of talent Troy simply hasn't seen yet this season.