South Alabama's issue is the opposite one. The Jaguars can score. They put up 52 on UL Monroe and 56 at Arkansas State in back-to-back wins in October. But they gave up 49 in that Arkansas State win, and the defense has allowed at least 28 in 4 of the last 5. Now they've lost 3 straight, and the last 2 were winnable: a 20-35 home loss to unbeaten-in-league Louisiana Tech and that 2-point loss in Lafayette.
The Louisiana loss is the most encouraging bad result either team has. South Alabama trailed 28-17 and scored the last 9 points but couldn't finish the comeback. A JJ Garner 100-yard kickoff return accounted for 7 of Louisiana's points. Brendan Jenkins caught 6 passes for 101 yards. The offense that played that second half is good enough to beat a Troy team that turned it over 5 times a week ago, if the defense gets a stop or 2.
Both teams lost to Louisiana and Louisiana Tech this season, so the common opponents don't separate them. Troy's loss in Lafayette was the uglier one, 6-33. South Alabama's was by 2 points. The forecast for Mobile is about 50 degrees, clear, with almost no wind, so nothing about the conditions limits either offense. This one probably comes down to whether Troy's ground game shows up, and whether the Jaguars' defense can hold on to a lead for once.
