Troy closes out a brutal two-week road trip in Logan, walking into a Utah State program still figuring out what it looks like in its first season outside the Mountain West.
Bush’s Picks
TROYUSU
TROYUSU
OverUnder
Best BetTroy
Troy's the more proven program walking into this one — a Sun Belt title-game team with a returning QB tandem, even with the portal losses at skill spots. Utah State is starting a transfer quarterback behind a defense that was the worst in the Mountain West a year ago, now facing a step up in competition. Back Troy to get out of Logan with the win.
Troy
+Made Sun Belt title game last season, real contender
+Returns both 2025 starting quarterbacks
+New OC ran FCS-high 42.4 ppg offense last year
−Lost leading rusher, leading receiver to the portal
−QB competition still unresolved
−Second straight true road game in as many weeks
Utah State
+Home game in program's first Pac-12 season
+Scored 30.9 ppg last year, 2nd-best in Mountain West
+Returns leading tacklers Hamblin and Olevao on defense
−Defense finished last in Mountain West in total yards
−Brand-new QB and skill groups need time to gel
−Stepping up in competition level for the first time
This one's a scheduling gauntlet for Troy. The Trojans go from Missouri on September 19 straight into Utah State a week later, and it's a QB situation that's still unsettled heading into it. Tucker Kilcrease and Goose Crowder both started games last year after Crowder battled injuries, and neither has locked down the job. New offensive coordinator Adam Austin, who ran an FCS-high 42.4 points per game at Tarleton State, is the one guy who might make the QB question matter less.
Utah State's operating with a mostly new roster after Bronco Mendenhall brought in 29 newcomers, headlined by transfer quarterback McCae Hillstead, who already has Utah State starting experience from 2023 before two years at BYU. He inherits three returning interior linemen and a fresh receiver room pulled from Georgia State, Arizona and Oklahoma State. The other side of the ball is the real question mark — this defense finished dead last in the Mountain West in total yardage a season ago, and now it's adjusting to a new league on top of it.
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Both programs are coming off bowl-eligible campaigns, but Troy's floor is clearly higher right now. The Trojans played in the Sun Belt title game last December, while Utah State needed a strong finish just to get to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Mendenhall's first year. That gap shows up in how the market's likely to shape up once lines post.
Troy Trojans
Sep 19?@ Missouri—
Sep 12?vs Alabama State—
Sep 5?vs Sam Houston—
Utah State Aggies
Sep 19?@ Utah—
Sep 12?@ Washington—
Sep 5?vs Idaho State—
Recent form.
Troy's not walking in whole, though. Leading rusher Tae Meadows (Auburn), leading receiver DJ Epps (West Virginia) and a promising playmaker in Roman Mothershed (LSU) are all gone via the portal, which puts real pressure on Austin's new-look offense to find production fast. Utah State, for its part, actually scored plenty last year — 30.9 points per game, second-best in the Mountain West — so if that offensive identity carries over under a new QB, this could get track-meet-y in a hurry.
Home field and a full offseason under Mendenhall count for something, especially against a Troy team that will have logged back-to-back true road trips by kickoff. But roster continuity still favors the Trojans, who return the division-title pedigree even with the skill-position losses. This is a program in transition hosting a program that knows how to win close ones — worth watching how much the newness on Utah State's side shows up on the field.
