Two AAC heavyweights both lost their head coach to a Power 4 job this offseason, and now Tulane and South Florida close out the regular season trying to figure out who they even are.
Bush’s Picks
TULNUSF
TULNUSF
OverUnder
Best BetTulane
Tulane's the side to trust here purely on continuity — this roster kept more of its preseason accolades intact and the Green Wave have owned this series for 4 straight meetings. USF's transfer haul is real, but asking a first-year staff and a brand-new quarterback room to flip a lopsided series in November is a lot to ask. Back Tulane to win outright.
Tulane
+Won back-to-back AAC titles, reached CFP last year
+4-game win streak in this series
+10 Athlon preseason all-conference selections
−Lost HC Jon Sumrall to Florida mid-transition
−Lost ~20 players to the transfer portal
−Wide-open QB competition with no proven starter
South Florida
+Landed AAC's top-rated transfer class
+Hired respected OC/WR developer Brian Hartline
+Returning skill players Isaac and Reuben provide a base
−Lost HC Alex Golesh and ~14 players to Auburn
−Almost no returning starters on defense
−Lost last season's bowl game 10-24 under an interim coach
This one's less about history and more about identity. Tulane won back-to-back AAC titles under Jon Sumrall before he bolted for Florida in December, and the Green Wave handed the keys to internal promotion Will Hall, who went 14-30 at Southern Miss. USF is dealing with the same gut punch after Alex Golesh parlayed a 9-3 season into the Auburn job, taking a reported 14 players with him. New coach Brian Hartline, the former Ohio State receivers coach, was hired to keep the momentum going. Both quarterback rooms are almost entirely blank slates walking into this game.
Tulane's depth chart is a real question mark. Jake Retzlaff and Brendan Sullivan are both out of eligibility, leaving transfer Zeon Criss to battle a handful of unproven names for the job. USF isn't any cleaner — Byrum Brown and Locklan Hewlett followed Golesh to Auburn, so Hartline went out and grabbed two experienced portal arms in Michael Van Buren and Luke Kromenhoek to fight it out. Whoever's actually starting by late November will have had a full season to sort that out, which matters a lot for how this line should be read.
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TULN Tulane
USF South Florida
The roster turnover cuts both ways, too. Tulane reportedly lost 20-plus players to the portal during the coaching change, while USF is breaking in a defense with basically one returning starter. Neither program looks like the group it fielded a year ago, and by the time Thanksgiving week rolls around, both fan bases will have a much clearer read on whether their new staff actually has this thing pointed in the right direction.
Tulane Green Wave
Nov 20?vs North Texas—
Nov 13?@ Rice—
Nov 6?vs Tulsa—
Oct 30?@ Charlotte—
Oct 16?vs Memphis—
Oct 10?@ Army—
Sep 25?vs Southern Miss—
Sep 19?@ Kansas State—
Sep 12?vs South Alabama—
Sep 5?@ Duke—
South Florida Bulls
Nov 20?@ Florida Atlantic—
Nov 12?vs Memphis—
Nov 6?@ East Carolina—
Oct 30?vs UAB—
Oct 16?vs Kent State—
Oct 8?@ UTSA—
Oct 2?vs Temple—
Sep 25?@ Bowling Green—
Sep 19?vs Delaware State—
Sep 12?@ Army—
Sep 5?vs Florida International—
Recent form.
History leans hard toward Tulane here. The Green Wave have won the last 4 meetings in this series, including a 45-10 blowout in 2024, and they still own the head-to-head edge 4-1 overall. Tulane also arrives with more continuity on paper — Athlon and Phil Steele handed out 10 and 9 preseason all-conference nods to Green Wave players respectively, a sign the roster kept more of its identity than USF's did. CFN's spring projections had Tulane pegged for 8-4, which would be a step down from last year's CFP berth but still solid for a program mid-transition.
USF's counter is the transfer class itself — by some counts the best haul in the AAC — plus a genuine belief that Hartline is a program-changing hire after his run developing receivers in Columbus. Alvon Isaac and Mudia Reuben give the Bulls something to build around on offense even with a brand-new quarterback. Whether that talent infusion is enough to flip a series this lopsided in year one under a first-time head coach is the real question hovering over this finale.
