Tulsa is the total inverse story. Tre Lamb's first season on the Hill ended 4-8, but buried in that record are two of the program's best wins in years — a 19-12 upset at Oklahoma State that snapped a 10-game Cowboys win streak in Stillwater, and a come-from-behind 26-25 win at Army, Tulsa's first there since 2007. The defense also made one of the biggest jumps in the country, trimming its pass yards allowed by over 100 yards a game from 2024 to 2025. This isn't the same Tulsa team that got run off the field under Kevin Wilson.
Baylor Hayes gets a second year as Tulsa's starter, and the receiver room is deeper than it was, even after losing All-Conference tight end Brody Foley. The problem is scoring points — Tulsa never cracked 40 in a game all of last season, and against a Navy defense that should still be stout up front, that's a real concern. On the other side, Elijah Green, the American's interception leader and a Jim Thorpe semifinalist at corner, gives Tulsa a genuine difference-maker on a defense that's trending the right direction.
For Navy, the margin for error is thinner than the record suggests. Eleven starters are back, and the roster continuity is real, but Woodson taking over for a proven starter while a new DC installs his scheme is exactly the kind of early-season formula that trips up preseason favorites. Tulsa, meanwhile, has already shown it can hang with — and beat — teams it's not supposed to beat.
Put it together and this reads like a program on the rise hosting a program trying to prove last year's flashes weren't a mirage. Navy's talent and continuity still make it the favorite walking into Annapolis, but Tulsa's defense and its taste for stealing games it has no business winning make this more interesting than the seedings suggest.