Two programs chasing their first winning season in years collide under the lights in Houston, with Rice trying to prove year two under Scott Abell is real progress.
Bush’s Picks
TLSARICE
TLSARICE
OverUnder
Best BetRice
Rice gets the nod here off the strength of its backfield combo of Quinton Jackson and Jacurri Brown, which gives the Owls a two-way run threat Tulsa's defense hasn't had to solve much yet this season. Tulsa's own inconsistency on both lines makes them a shakier bet on the road, even with Hayes settling in as the full-time starter. This is closer to a coin flip than a lock, but home teams building real offensive identity get the benefit of the doubt over a program still hunting its first winning season since 2022.
Tulsa
+Baylor Hayes now has a full season of starting experience
+Coach Lamb had a signature win over Oklahoma State
+Elijah Green anchors a playmaking secondary
−Finished 4-8 last season, still chasing first winning year
−Losing leading receiver Brody Foley at tight end
−Brutal AAC schedule flagged by multiple outlets
Rice
+Quinton Jackson chasing first 1,000-yard season
+New dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown adds a real run element
+Abell already beat Louisiana and UConn in year one
This one's set for Friday, October 16 at Rice Stadium, a rare weeknight showcase for a Golden Hurricane program that's been hunting a breakthrough since 2022 and an Owls squad trying to snap an 11-season streak without a winning record. Tulsa's second-year coach Tre Lamb has talked all offseason about being "close to a breakthrough," and this AAC road trip to Houston is exactly the kind of game that phrase gets tested against.
Rice's calling card is a run-and-option attack built around tailback Quinton Jackson, who put up a career-high 889 rushing yards last year and is chasing his first 1,000-yard season. The Owls also handed the keys to a new quarterback this offseason in UCF transfer Jacurri Brown, a dual-threat who's totaled 821 rushing yards and 8 scores on the ground across his college career. Pairing him with Jackson gives Abell's offense two legitimate weapons on the ground, which matters against a Tulsa defense that leans heavily on playmakers like Elijah Green, the reigning AAC interceptions leader.
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Where Rice gets shaky is on the other side of the ball. The Owls' defense allowed points on every single red-zone trip a year ago — a perfect, and perfectly bad, 100% mark — and all four of their double-digit-sack contributors from that group are gone. That's a lot of pass rush to replace against a Tulsa offense led by redshirt sophomore Baylor Hayes, who threw for 2,158 yards and 12 touchdowns after being thrust into the starting job by injury last season.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Oct 10?@ Navy—
Oct 1?vs North Texas—
Sep 26?@ Arkansas—
Sep 19?vs East Texas A&M—
Sep 12?@ Sam Houston—
Sep 5?vs Oklahoma State—
Rice Owls
Oct 9?@ East Carolina—
Oct 2?vs UTSA—
Sep 26?@ Fresno State—
Sep 19?vs Western Michigan—
Sep 12?@ Notre Dame—
Sep 5?vs Houston Christian—
Recent form.
Tulsa's own questions are just as real. The Golden Hurricane finished 4-8 last year despite that signature upset over Oklahoma State, and they're replacing tight end Brody Foley, who led the team with 528 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Hayes gets another year of reps and a strong transfer-portal haul around him, but this AAC slate was already flagged as brutal, and a Friday-night trip to Houston against a team that's building real juice on offense is no gimme.
The bigger picture: both of these programs are being sold on internal progress rather than star power, which is exactly what makes this a fun barometer game. Rice's Abell exceeded expectations in year one with upsets over Louisiana and UConn, while Lamb is selling patience in Tulsa after his first season nearly hit .500 with a full offseason to build on it. Whoever wins the turnover and red-zone battles here probably tells you more about their season than the scoreboard from Week 1 ever could.
