SMU opens its home slate against an FCS opponent that just made a deep playoff run of its own — but the talent gap here is about as wide as it gets in college football.
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UCDSMU
UCDSMU
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SMU is the far more talented, far more experienced team here, with a returning starting quarterback against a UC Davis offense breaking in a new one. There's no realistic path to backing the Aggies to win outright in this spot — this is about as clean a moneyline lean as the sport offers in September.
UC Davis
+9-4 finish, 3rd in Big Sky a year ago
+FCS playoff quarterfinalist with 10 All-Conference honorees
−Replacing starting QB with unproven redshirt freshmen/sophomore
−Massive step up in speed and talent vs an ACC roster
SMU
+Kevin Jennings returns with 30 total TDs last season
+Added explosive transfer RB Kendrick Raephael from Cal
−Lost four defensive line starters to the NFL
−Missed the CFP in 2025 after reaching it in 2024
This one is about scale. SMU comes off a 9-4, 6-2 ACC season that included a marquee upset of No. 10 Miami, and coach Rhett Lashlee has called this roster the highest-ceiling group he's had on the Hilltop. UC Davis, meanwhile, is a legitimately good FCS program — a 9-4 finish and a Big Sky bronze medal a season ago — but it's still an FCS program walking into a Power Conference building.
The headline storyline for SMU is continuity at quarterback. Kevin Jennings returns for his second straight year as the full-time starter and fifth season overall in Dallas, coming off a season with 30 total touchdowns despite nagging injuries. UC Davis can't say the same — the Aggies are replacing their starting quarterback with a room of redshirt freshmen and a redshirt sophomore who've barely taken FBS-caliber snaps, let alone against a defense with SMU's speed.
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SMU's offense also got a jolt this offseason with the addition of Cal transfer running back Kendrick Raephael, who led the ACC in plays from scrimmage a year ago. The defense is the shakier unit after losing four starters up front to the NFL, but against an FCS offense that's breaking in a new signal-caller, that shouldn't matter much this early in September.
UC Davis Aggies
SMU Mustangs
Sep 7?@ Florida State—
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UC Davis earns respect for how it got here — a first-round playoff bye, a home win over Rhode Island, and 10 players landing All-Big Sky honors before falling to eventual runner-up Illinois State in the quarterfinals. That's a program playing meaningful December football, which is more than a lot of Group of Five teams can say. But nothing in that resume translates cleanly to hanging with an ACC team that was one win away from the College Football Playoff conversation.
UC Davis Aggies
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
SMU Mustangs
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
The real risk for SMU here isn't UC Davis — it's SMU. Games like this are prime letdown or sloppy-execution spots, especially with a shakier defensive front still gelling. But even accounting for that, the roster and experience gap is too big to expect anything but a comfortable, business-like win for the Mustangs as they build toward the meat of their ACC schedule.
