The clearest sign of what Houston is this year came in Lubbock, where the Cougars lost 28-26 to Texas Tech in a game Fritz had said would take a clean performance. That's a team that can play with the top of the Big 12 and fell 2 points short on the road. It then went to Georgia Southern, where Fritz used to coach, before this one. The board has Houston as a clear favorite at home, and nothing about the quarterback matchup argues against that.
UCF's formula without Barnett is simple. Against Georgia State, 304 of the Knights' 390 total yards came on the ground, and Frost admitted the downfield shots he'd scripted never came because the lead made them unnecessary. He also said the quiet part out loud: "If we're going to win games in the Big 12, we have to let him be him and trust him." The Knights opened conference play against TCU after that, and Houston on the road is another step up from Georgia State.
Weather could matter too. The early forecast for TDECU calls for 84 degrees with light rain and a 54% chance of precipitation, though the wind is only 4 mph. A wet ball helps the team that wants to run and punish anyone who has to throw to catch up. That suits a UCF offense that was already leaning on the run, and it's a question mark for anything Houston plans to do through the air. It's a forecast made 6 days out, so treat it as something to check again Friday, not a fact.
What to watch: whether Barnett is cleared, and if he isn't, whether Frost actually opens it up for Jenkins or keeps him on the ground and plays for field position. Houston's job is easier to describe. Stop the run, force Jenkins into obvious passing downs, and let Weigman's experience decide it in the second half.