Neither of these programs was any good in 2025, but both are betting big on new quarterbacks to change that — and this one's a first-time meeting in Stillwater.
Bush’s Picks
UCFOKST
UCFOKST
OverUnder
Best BetUCF
UCF gets the nod here mostly on continuity — Frost's staff and system are the same ones from a year ago, and Barnett is a proven winner even if he's working back from injury. Oklahoma State is starting from zero at quarterback and across the roster, and first-year installs under a new coach can be shaky no matter how good the talent looks on paper. The safer bet is the team that isn't rebuilding everything at once.
UCF
+Alonza Barnett III is reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year
+Frost's staff returns intact for Year 2
−Missed bowl eligibility two straight seasons
−Barnett was limited this spring by an injury
−Still hasn't cracked .500 in the Big 12
Oklahoma State
+Eric Morris imports a No. 1 scoring offense concept
+Historic 85-player, 60-plus transfer overhaul
−Went 1-11 and winless in Big 12 play in 2025
−Carrying an 18-game conference losing streak
−Zero returning scholarship quarterbacks on the roster
Scott Frost's second year in Orlando is supposed to look nothing like his first. UCF went 5-7 and missed a bowl for a second straight season in 2025, and the fix started at quarterback, where the Knights went out and got Alonza Barnett III, the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year who threw for 2,806 yards and ran for 15 more touchdowns while dragging James Madison into the first-ever Sun Belt CFP berth. Across the field, Eric Morris walks into his first true test at Oklahoma State after Mike Gundy's 21-year run ended following a 1-11, winless-in-conference 2025. Morris brought his North Texas quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, and dozens of transfers with him, hoping to import the No. 1 scoring offense in the country to Stillwater.
Barnett's arrival was the headline of UCF's offseason, but it comes with an asterisk. Frost said this spring the team was going to "take it slow" with his new starter, who sat out 11-on-11 reps while working back from an undisclosed injury. Frost wasn't worried about him picking up the offense, but until Barnett is truly full-go in fall camp, there's real uncertainty about how sharp he'll look this deep into a season.
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UCF UCF
OKST Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State's whole operation is starting over. Zero scholarship quarterbacks returned from a roster that couldn't win a single Big 12 game last year, and the Cowboys backfilled the position — and basically everywhere else — with 85 new players, 60-plus of them out of the portal. That kind of overhaul can be a jolt of talent or a chemistry mess in October; nobody knows yet which version shows up for a Friday night home date.
UCF Knights
Oct 2?@ Houston—
Sep 25?vs TCU—
Sep 19?vs Georgia State—
Sep 12?@ Pittsburgh—
Sep 3?vs Bethune-Cookman—
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Sep 25?@ West Virginia—
Sep 19?vs Murray State—
Sep 12?vs Oregon—
Sep 5?@ Tulsa—
Recent form.
The losing streak is the story that follows Oklahoma State into every game right now: 18 straight Big 12 defeats dating back to a 2023 win over BYU. Morris's system gets talked about as a potential fix given what he built at North Texas, and ESPN has floated the Cowboys as a surprise team, but surprise projections don't erase a roster that's never taken a snap together in a real game. This will be the first time these programs have ever met, so there's no history to lean on, only the current state of two teams trying to prove last year was the outlier.
UCF Knights
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Oklahoma State Cowboys
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
UCF still hasn't finished above .500 in three years in the Big 12, and that's the number that matters more than any offseason hype. Frost's staff at least has continuity working for it — the same coordinators, the same install, one new quarterback to plug in rather than an entire two-deep. Whether that's enough of an edge against a Cowboys team with fresh legs and a new voice in the building is exactly what a game like this is for.
