A year ago UL Monroe ended a losing streak that stretched back over a decade against Arkansas State. Now the Warhawks head back to Jonesboro looking to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Bush’s Picks
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OverUnder
Best BetArkansas State
Arkansas State is the far more established program right now — a bowl win, a stable head coach, and actual depth at the skill positions. The moneyline price should still reflect real uncertainty given the quarterback shuffle, but backing the Red Wolves to win outright at home is the safer read once that competition settles.
UL Monroe
+Snapped Arkansas State's long win streak last meeting
+QB Aidan Armenta returns with starting experience
+New OC installing fresh scheme this spring
−Finished 3-9 overall, worst season in years
−Offense averaged just 16.6 points per game in 2025
−Head coach juggling dual AD role
Arkansas State
+Won Xbox Bowl, finished 7-6 in 2025
+Butch Jones brings 6th-year program stability
+Returning preseason All-Sun Belt talent at WR, DL
−Lost 3-year starting QB Raynor to the portal
−Four-way QB competition creates real uncertainty
−Dropped last meeting to this same ULM team
Arkansas State enters Saturday, November 7 as the program with the resume. Butch Jones is in year 6, the Red Wolves capped 2025 with a 34-28 Xbox Bowl win over Missouri State, and the roster has talent at the skill spots. But the quarterback room is a total reset. Three-year starter Jaylen Raynor bolted for Iowa State in the portal, and Jones brought in Texas transfer Trey Owens and Vanderbilt transfer Drew Dickey to fight it out with two other options. Whoever wins that job will still be finding his footing this deep into the season.
UL Monroe's story is a much rougher one. The Warhawks stumbled to a 3-9 finish in 2025, including a 73-0 humbling at Alabama, and their offense was one of the worst in the sport at just 16.6 points per game. Bryant Vincent is entering year 3 while also serving as interim athletic director, and this offseason he handed play-calling duties to new coordinator Cody Montalto. QB Aidan Armenta is back for another run, and he's the one guy on either sideline with real continuity behind center.
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ULM UL Monroe
ARST Arkansas State
The number that actually matters here is 28-16 — that was the final score last September when Armenta threw for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns to snap Arkansas State's stranglehold on this series. Whatever a book prices this game at in November, that result is the reason Arkansas State can't be treated as an automatic home cover just because it's the more accomplished program on paper.
UL Monroe Warhawks
Oct 30?vs Southern Miss—
Oct 16?vs Louisiana Tech—
Oct 2?@ South Alabama—
Sep 25?vs Florida Atlantic—
Sep 19?vs SE Louisiana—
Sep 12?@ UAB—
Sep 5?@ Mississippi State—
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Oct 16?@ Southern Miss—
Oct 8?vs South Alabama—
Oct 2?@ Louisiana—
Sep 26?vs Kennesaw State—
Sep 19?@ TCU—
Sep 12?vs West Georgia—
Sep 5?@ Memphis—
Recent form.
Arkansas State's floor is still higher. Corey Rucker and Bryan Whitehead came into 2025 as preseason All-Sun Belt picks, kicker Clune Van Andel was the league's Special Teams Player of the Year, and that's the kind of complementary talent that can mask a rocky quarterback transition. UL Monroe doesn't have that same depth to lean on if its offense sputters again.
UL Monroe Warhawks
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Arkansas State Red Wolves
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is billed as the Rice Bowl Rivalry now, a nod to the shared farming country between Monroe and Jonesboro, but the football stakes are simple. Arkansas State wants its program-building era under Jones to include beating the little brother down the road every single year. UL Monroe just proved it doesn't have to be that way anymore.
