Betting
Barstool BushChronicling the Barstool Universe

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars

Oct 3, 20266:00 PM CTMobile, AL
By JR·2 min read
UL Monroe(0-4)
South Alabama(2-2)
6:00 PM

TLDR: UL Monroe hasn't won a football game in 12 tries, and the first Sun Belt test on the calendar is a trip to Mobile. South Alabama gets them at home, where the Jaguars have scored 39 and 41 this season.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 6:00 PM CT
UL Monroe
(0-4)
LLLL
South Alabama
(2-2)
LWLW
Kickoff77°

UL Monroe is 0-4 and on a 12-game losing streak going into its first Sun Belt game, at South Alabama. The Jaguars have scored 39 and 41 at home but have allowed 36 to Ohio and 376 rushing yards to Kentucky. The game turns on whether Aidan Armenta's passing game can exploit a leaky South Alabama defense, possibly in the rain. The board has South Alabama as a heavy home favorite.

UL Monroe Warhawks
  • Armenta threw for 278 yards and 2 TDs vs FAU
  • Big-play threat, including LT Robinson's 75-yard score
  • 0-4 as of now, 12-game losing streak
  • Defense gave up 45 and 314 passing yards to FAU
  • Lost to SE Louisiana, which South Alabama beat by 25
South Alabama Jaguars
  • Scored 39 and 41 in 2 home wins
  • Blew out common opponent SE Louisiana
  • Kentucky ran for 376 yards on them
  • Gave up 36 to Ohio in Mobile
  • Physical SEC road trip right before this

Most of this game comes down to UL Monroe's passing attack against a South Alabama defense that has spent September giving up points. Aidan Armenta threw for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 45-17 homecoming loss to Florida Atlantic, including a 75-yard strike to LT Robinson. The Warhawks pulled him in the 4th quarter for Landon Graves, but that was a blowout decision, and there's been no sign Armenta is losing the job. On the other side, Major Applewhite's Jaguars pile up points at Hancock Whitney Stadium. They beat Southeastern Louisiana 39-14 to open the year and outlasted Ohio 41-36.

The records are lopsided, but ULM's 0-4 isn't all the same kind of loss. The Warhawks opened at Mississippi State, then dropped one-possession games to UAB and Southeastern Louisiana before FAU ran them over. The FAU loss is the ugly one: Caden Veltkamp threw for 314 yards, Ethan Ervin ran for 139, and FAU returned a punt 73 yards for a score. That was a defense and special-teams failure, and it happened at home.

South Alabama comes in banged up from a physical SEC road trip. Kentucky beat the Jaguars 45-21 and ran for 376 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Wildcats' own recap put the ground game at the center of it. The market still has South Alabama as a heavy home favorite, which makes sense given one common opponent. South Alabama beat Southeastern Louisiana by 25, and ULM lost to the same Lions.

UL Monroe Warhawks
(0-4)
09/27LvsFlorida Atlantic17-45
09/19LvsSE Louisiana35-38
09/12L@UAB20-26
09/05L@#16 Mississippi State13-62
South Alabama Jaguars
(2-2)
09/26L@#24 Kentucky21-45
09/19WvsOhio41-36
09/12L@Tulane24-28
09/05WvsSE Louisiana39-14

The question for Mobile is whether South Alabama's defense has fixed anything. Ohio put up 36 in this building, and Kentucky moved the ball on the ground whenever it wanted. ULM isn't built to punish a defense the way Kentucky did, since the Warhawks do their damage through the air. If Armenta has time, the Jaguars' secondary has to hold up in a way it hasn't had to since the Ohio shootout.

The forecast is worth keeping an eye on. An early read for Mobile has 80 degrees with heavy drizzle and a 70% chance of rain, and wet conditions tend to take the edge off a vertical passing game like ULM's. It's still 6 days out, so it could change. For the Warhawks, the story is simpler: a 12-game losing streak, a new conference slate, and a road trip to a team that has already scored 40 at home. South Alabama needs to turn a 2-2 September into a clean start in league play, and that begins with not letting a winless team hang around.