UAB's bigger swing factor is on the other side of the ball. The Blazers fielded the nation's worst pass-defense efficiency last season, which is a big reason Mortensen went out and hired Todd Grantham as defensive coordinator and leaned hard on the transfer portal for defensive reinforcements. If that unit looks even average early, UAB's ceiling changes fast — if it doesn't, ULM's rebuilding offense might be exactly the group that exposes it again.
ULM went 3-9 last season and averaged just 16.6 points a game, which is why the Warhawks brought in a new offensive coordinator and leaned on the transfer portal for skill-position help. But the pieces that matter most — LB Noah Flemmings and OL AJ Vinson — are both back and both earned Preseason All-Sun Belt nods, giving Vincent a defensive anchor and a veteran offensive line piece even as the passing game rebuilds around Armenta.
UAB, meanwhile, lost its top two receivers from a season ago, including 900-yard target Iverson Hooks to Oregon, so Kaleb Brown inherits the No. 1 role with a thinner resume than the guy he's replacing. That's a real question mark walking into a home opener, and it comes right after UAB opens the season on the road at Illinois — a trip that could leave this group banged up or simply gassed by the time ULM rolls into Protective Stadium.
History gives ULM a small mental edge here: the Warhawks lead this series 2-1 and won the last meeting in 2024. Vincent knows this building, this administration, and exactly what a rebuilding UAB program looks like from the inside — he lived it. Whether that institutional knowledge translates to Saturday is another matter, since this UAB roster and staff are almost entirely different from the one he once coached.
Both programs are projected around the same modest record for 2026, which tells you plenty about how tight this one should be on paper. For ULM, this is an early referendum on whether Vincent's slow build finally produces the program's first winning season since 2012. For UAB, it's simply the first real test of the Mortensen era in front of a home crowd — and an immediate answer on whether that defensive overhaul is real.