Both openers looked worse on the scoreboard than on the stat sheet, just in different directions. UAB actually out-gained Illinois 413 yards to 333 and held the ball for over 41 minutes before a fourth-quarter pick-six blew the score open; UL Monroe's problem was more basic, converting just 3 of 16 third downs and managing only 278 total yards against Mississippi State's 762. That gap is a big reason UAB sits among the heavier home favorites on the board this weekend.
These two haven't met in Birmingham since 1999, and this is uncharted territory for Monroe in another way — the Warhawks haven't opened a season with back-to-back true road games since 2012. Mortensen gets his first shot at a home sideline as the permanent head coach in front of a Protective Stadium crowd that would like to see last week's clock-control offense actually finish drives instead of handing points back.
Whoever wins this one probably wins it on the same margins that decided both openers: third downs and the football. Monroe needs to show the offense that stalled for a half in Starkville can move the ball without leaning on garbage-time snaps from its backup quarterback, while UAB needs its yardage edge to actually land on the scoreboard instead of getting erased by one bad snap.
Neither program has much margin left for a slow start with the rest of its schedule still ahead, which makes Saturday's game in Birmingham a bigger swing spot for both sides than the modest number on the board suggests.