Last October these two combined for 99 points and the most lopsided score in series history. A year later, both programs show up to Colorado Springs looking almost nothing like they did then.
Bush’s Picks
UNLVAF
UNLVAF
OverUnder
Best BetUNLV
UNLV walks in as the more proven program right now — a 10-4 season, a Mountain West title game appearance, and 7 straight wins in this series. Air Force is rebuilding off a losing year and needs its quarterback to prove he's fully back from injury, which makes the Rebels the safer moneyline lean even with a new starter under center.
UNLV
+10-4 in 2025, reached MW title game
+Led Mountain West in total offense and scoring
+Won 7 straight meetings in this series
−Lost MW Offensive Player of the Year to portal
−Brand new, unproven starting quarterback
−First road trip test under a rebuilt QB room
Air Force
+Szarka expected back healthy at QB
+Deep, productive backfield led by Owen Allen
+Calhoun has 139 wins, longest-tenured MW coach
−Coming off a 4-8, bowl-less season
−Back-to-back losing seasons for the first time under Calhoun
−Defense allowed 51 points in last meeting
UNLV enters as the new-look Mountain West favorite after Dan Mullen took over for Barry Odom (who bolted for Purdue's $39M offer) and promptly steered the Rebels back to a conference title game. The catch: the quarterback who got them there, Anthony Colandrea, is gone to Nebraska, so Mullen's fall camp has turned into an open competition between Oklahoma/Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold, Michigan transfer Alex Orji, and freshman Derek Garcia.
Air Force is coming off the opposite kind of offseason. A 4-8 finish in 2025 snapped Troy Calhoun's usual floor, and it happened despite a triple-option attack that led the country in yards per completion. The reason for optimism is health: dual-threat QB Liam Szarka broke his arm late last year but is expected back running the option alongside fullback Owen Allen, who churned out 750 yards on the ground.
Show fees
2:30 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
UNLV UNLV
AF Air Force
The Mountain West itself looks different too. Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and others bailed for the Pac-12, and the league backfilled with UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State. The conference didn't even bother releasing a preseason poll this summer, but the people making odds still like UNLV and New Mexico as the class of the new-look field.
UNLV Rebels
Oct 10?vs North Dakota State—
Oct 3?vs California—
Sep 25?@ Akron—
Sep 12?@ North Texas—
Sep 5?@ Hawai'i—
Aug 29?vs Memphis—
Air Force Falcons
Oct 10?@ Northern Illinois—
Oct 3?vs Navy—
Sep 25?@ Nevada—
Sep 12?vs North Dakota State—
Sep 5?vs Duquesne—
Recent form.
UNLV has won 7 straight in this series, and the 2025 meeting was the wildest of the bunch — a 51-48 track meet at Air Force's place that had nothing to do with either program's usual identity. For a triple-option team built to control the clock, giving up 51 points was the kind of outlier Calhoun's staff spent all offseason trying to explain away.
UNLV Rebels
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Air Force Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
None of that guarantees a repeat. UNLV's offense was the Mountain West's best by yardage and scoring last year, but that was with a proven starter under center — whoever wins the Arnold-Orji-Garcia battle inherits a offense that averaged 34 points a game and now has to prove it wasn't just Colandrea. Air Force's path back to respectability starts with Szarka staying upright and the option grinding out the clock instead of trading scores.
