UNLV leads this series 15-12 and has won three straight against New Mexico, but the Rebels' defense has been a liability while the Lobos are coming off their best season in a decade.
Bush’s Picks
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OverUnder
Best BetUNLV
UNLV brings the higher offensive ceiling into this one behind Jackson Arnold, a former top-3 recruit playing for a Dan Mullen program that's found double-digit wins each of the last three seasons. New Mexico's breakthrough is real, but leaning on a quarterback coming off elbow surgery against a roster with a proven track record is the shakier bet.
UNLV
+Landed former 5-star QB Jackson Arnold from the portal
+3 straight double-digit-win-caliber seasons under Mullen
+Mike Scherer returning to fix the defense
−Defense ranked 117th nationally in yards allowed
−QB1 job unsettled entering fall camp
−Lost starting QB Colandrea and DE Adeleye to the portal
New Mexico
+Coming off breakthrough 9-4 season and first bowl since 2016
+Year 2 continuity under Jason Eck
+Deep group of returning defensive starters
−Starting QB Jack Layne recovering from elbow surgery
−Lost 8 players to the transfer portal, including a TE, RB and punter
−Backup QB depth thinned after 2 QBs also left in the portal
This one's been circled on both sides since the schedule dropped. New Mexico specifically lists UNLV among its marquee rivalry games alongside Air Force and UTEP, and after last year's 9-4 breakthrough under Jason Eck, the Lobos have a real shot to make this a signature win instead of just another Saturday.
The name driving UNLV's offseason buzz is Jackson Arnold, the former Oklahoma and Auburn five-star who's now trying to salvage his career under Dan Mullen. He was named Preseason All-Mountain West Second Team, but he's not walking into a locked-down QB1 job — Alex Orji is still in that room, and fall camp will settle who actually starts by the time this game rolls around. Whoever wins that battle inherits a backfield anchored by Jai'Den Thomas, who ran for over 1,000 yards at 7 yards a carry last season.
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6:30 PM CT
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UNM New Mexico
New Mexico's version of that storyline centers on Jack Layne, who tore a flexor tendon in his throwing elbow last season and had surgery in December. He barely threw during spring ball but is targeting full health by the regular season — worth watching given how much offense goes through his arm when he's right, including a four-touchdown game against rival New Mexico State last fall.
