UNLV is still chasing another shot at the Mountain West title. San José State is just trying to find out who it even is this year.
Bush’s Picks
UNLVSJSU
UNLVSJSU
OverUnder
Best BetUNLV
UNLV's roster continuity and 3-year track record of Mountain West contention make the Rebels the side to trust here even with a new starting quarterback. San José State's rebuild left it short-handed at nearly every skill position, and that kind of gap rarely closes by late November. Back UNLV to win outright even if the number isn't cheap.
UNLV
+30 wins over the past 3 seasons under program turnaround
+3 straight Mountain West title-game appearances
−Starting QB Anthony Colandrea left for Nebraska via portal
−Tougher non-conference slate (Memphis, North Texas, hosting Cal) could derail momentum
San José State
+Six players earned Phil Steele preseason All-Mountain West honors
+Defensive portal additions at corner, safety and linebacker
−Lost nearly every key contributor off last year's roster
−Pass rush was among the nation's weakest, just 17 sacks all season
Dan Mullen's second season in Las Vegas has the Rebels rolling into the back half of November with a program that's won 30 games over the last 3 years and made 3 straight Mountain West title-game trips. This is the second-to-last tune-up before the annual in-state rivalry finale on November 28, sandwiched between a home date with Wyoming and a trip to New Mexico. The complication: starting quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who threw for 3,459 yards and accounted for 33 total touchdowns last season, bolted for Nebraska in the portal, leaving Mullen to rebuild the position from scratch before this one kicks off.
San José State, meanwhile, is dealing with something closer to a full teardown. Ken Niumatalolo enters year 3 having lost almost everyone who mattered off last year's roster, and the portal returns were light — especially on offense. The defensive side fared better, adding corner Isaiah Buxton, safety Brian Dukes and linebacker Aizik Muhuka, but the Spartans managed just 17 sacks all last season and pass-rush production remains a real concern heading into 2026.
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That gap in continuity is exactly why oddsmakers will lean hard toward UNLV once a line goes up. College Football News framed the Rebels' range of outcomes as boom-or-bust — win the Mountain West and get a playoff look, or suffer their first losing season in 4 years if the tougher non-conference stretch (Memphis, a trip to North Texas, hosting Cal) knocks them off track. San José State doesn't have that kind of ceiling this year; the goal is simply competence.
UNLV Rebels
Nov 14?@ New Mexico—
Nov 7?vs Wyoming—
Oct 31?vs Northern Illinois—
Oct 17?@ Air Force—
Oct 10?vs North Dakota State—
Oct 3?vs California—
Sep 25?@ Akron—
Sep 12?@ North Texas—
Sep 5?@ Hawai'i—
Aug 29?vs Memphis—
San José State Spartans
Nov 14?@ Air Force—
Nov 6?vs Northern Illinois—
Oct 30?vs New Mexico—
Oct 17?@ UTEP—
Oct 9?vs Wyoming—
Oct 3?@ Hawai'i—
Sep 19?vs Fresno State—
Sep 11?vs Cal Poly—
Sep 4?@ Eastern Michigan—
Aug 29?@ USC—
Recent form.
Six Spartans still landed on the Phil Steele preseason All-Mountain West team, led by special-teamers Trent Carrizosa and Trajan Sinatra, so this isn't a team devoid of talent — it's just thin at the positions that decide November games. Whoever ends up under center for UNLV by this point in the schedule will matter more than any single Spartan name; Mullen has a track record of developing quarterbacks, but a new starter learning the offense in real time is still a variable a veteran group like San José State's defense can't be.
By the time these two meet, the story writes itself either way: a Mountain West contender leaning on program depth against a rebuild trying to avoid getting buried before its rivalry finale the following week.
