USC rolls into Beaver Stadium as the team that stayed the course this offseason, while Penn State shows up with almost an entirely new identity under first-year coach Matt Campbell.
Bush’s Picks
USCPSU
USCPSU
OverUnder
Best BetUSC
USC brings the more proven setup into this one — Maiava's continuity and a fully returning offensive line are the safer bet than a Penn State team installing a new staff and system on the fly. Becht's résumé is real, but he's doing it in year one with two dozen new faces around him. Back the more settled program to win outright until Penn State's rebuild proves it can beat a ranked team early.
USC
+Maiava returns with 31 career starts, sharp spring
+Entire starting offensive line comes back
+Preseason No. 12 ranking, deep transfer haul
−Brand-new DC in Gary Patterson, unproven scheme fit
−Must win on the road against a fresh-start crowd
Penn State
+Becht brings 26 career wins, most of any returner
+Campbell's transfer class stocked with proven Iowa State starters
+Home crowd, new-era energy under first-year staff
−55 new players, chemistry still forming
−Becht limited by offseason surgery, only reached 7-on-7 reps in spring
−FPI projects just a 22% CFP shot, outside top-15
Maiava enters his third season as USC's starter with 31 career starts and an entire returning offensive line in front of him — Lincoln Riley called his spring "fantastic," about as strong an endorsement as a head coach hands his own quarterback. Across the field, Becht brings 26 career wins as a starter into Happy Valley, more than any other returning quarterback in the country, but he's coming off surgery that limited him all spring and only had him back to 7-on-7 reps by late April.
Penn State's operation looks almost nothing like the one that finished last season. James Franklin was fired in October, Campbell arrived from Iowa State in December, and 55 new players are on the roster, 24 of them Campbell imports from Ames. USC, by contrast, is running it back with a defense retooled around new coordinator Gary Patterson and a roster Riley says has more continuity into fall camp than any group he's coached in Los Angeles. That gap in program stability is the story of the offseason for both sides.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
USC USC
PSU Penn State
The instability cuts both ways for Penn State, though. Plenty of those newcomers are proven starters, not project pieces, and a healthy Becht gives Campbell a foundation few first-year rebuilds get to start with. USC still has to prove its preseason No. 12 ranking translates on the road against a program mid-overhaul, not just against the schedule it cruised through during a clean offseason.
USC Trojans
Oct 2?vs Washington—
Sep 25?vs Oregon—
Sep 19?@ Rutgers—
Sep 12?vs Louisiana—
Sep 4?vs Fresno State—
Aug 29?vs San José State—
Penn State Nittany Lions
Oct 2?@ Northwestern—
Sep 25?vs Wisconsin—
Sep 19?vs Buffalo—
Sep 12?@ Temple—
Sep 5?vs Marshall—
Recent form.
One name ties both sidelines together: edge rusher Zuriah Fisher played his past two seasons at Penn State before transferring to USC this offseason, where he's now competing for pass-rush snaps behind Kameryn Crawford and Braylan Shelby. He won't call it personal, but there's an obvious subplot to a former Nittany Lion lining up against his old locker room in Beaver Stadium.
USC Trojans
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Penn State Nittany Lions
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
For Campbell, this is exactly the kind of test his hire was built for — a ranked, veteran-heavy Big Ten opponent early enough in year one to show whether Penn State's reset is actually working. For Riley and USC, it's a chance to bank a real road win against a program in transition before the rest of the Big Ten schedule gets tougher.
