The number Penn State has to answer for is 413. Northwestern ran for that many yards in the opener at the new Ryan Field, gained 506 overall, and had more than 200 rushing yards by halftime. Caleb Komolafe ran for 188 yards and Joseph Himon II for 162 on 10 carries. That's not a run defense having one bad night. It got pushed off the ball for 4 quarters, and it lost DL M. Granville for the season back in September.
The Trojans' defense has its own bad tape. Oregon put up more than 500 yards on Gary Patterson's group in the 41-27 loss at the Coliseum. Against Washington, though, the defense won the game: Elijah Newby strip-sacked Demond Williams and Jahkeem Stewart returned the fumble 48 yards for a touchdown. USC then broke up a 4th-down pass to close it out. It wasn't clean, but they held on in a game that was close all the way.
The two seasons have gone in opposite directions. Penn State beat Marshall, Temple and Buffalo by a combined 127-22, then lost to Wisconsin at home and got run over in Evanston. USC's only loss is to Oregon, and its 3 conference games were all decided by 14 points or less. The early schedule made the Nittany Lions look like a lot more than they've been in October.
Saturday comes down to 2 things. Can Penn State's front stop the run long enough to make Maiava beat it with a short-handed receiver group? And can Becht keep pace if it can't? The early forecast for University Park says high 50s, partly cloudy and barely any wind, but that will change before kickoff. Two Big Ten teams, a sold-out night crowd in State College and a near pick'em. Penn State can't afford a third straight loss, and USC has a chance to stay in the conference race.