USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers

Oct 24, 20266:30 PM CTNBCMadison, WI
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: No. 19 USC has had 2 weeks to enjoy the biggest crowd in Beaver Stadium history going home unhappy. Now the Trojans go to Madison, where a Wisconsin team that just scored 7 points at the Rose Bowl needs to prove that was a one-off.

SAT 10/24, 6:30 PM CT · Week 8NBC
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Kickoff 62°13 mph

No. 19 USC (6-1) comes off a bye to visit Wisconsin (4-2), which just lost 17-7 at UCLA. Maiava and a high-scoring Trojans offense, missing several receivers, face a Badgers defense that has held 4 of its last 5 opponents to 20 or fewer. Wisconsin's QB and running back health is the biggest open question, and USC opens as a short road favorite.

USC Trojans
  • Off a bye; Wisconsin just flew back from LA
  • Maiava threw for 301 and 3 TDs at Penn State
  • Scored 31+ in 3 of last 5 games
  • WR room thinned: Simms, Anderson out, Tezeno questionable
  • Lost starting guard O'Connor for the season
  • Defense gave up 41 in the Oregon loss
Wisconsin Badgers
  • Defense held 4 of last 5 to 20 or fewer
  • Already won at Penn State, same as USC
  • Home at Camp Randall after a road trip
  • Managed only 7 points at UCLA
  • QB O'Neil carrying a lower-body tag
  • RB Palmer out, Sama III questionable

Start with the quarterbacks, because only one of these offenses looks settled. Jayden Maiava went 21-of-33 for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 31-23 win at Penn State, spread the ball to 3 different receivers for scores, and had Lincoln Riley calling it "one of my favorite wins as a head coach." Wisconsin's picture is cloudier. D. O'Neil has carried a lower-body tag on the injury report since early October, and an offense that put up 7 points against UCLA can't afford to wait until Saturday to find out who's under center.

The schedule favors USC here. The Trojans had the weekend off in the Big Ten before this trip. Wisconsin is back from a road trip to Los Angeles that went badly: penalties, and a defense that couldn't get off the field. The Badgers' backfield is also thin, with N. Palmer out and A. Sama III questionable. That's a lot of uncertainty for a team that wins by running the ball. USC opens as a short road favorite, which is about where 6-1 at 4-2 would put it.

There's a common opponent to compare. Both teams won in Happy Valley. Wisconsin ground out a 24-20 win at Penn State, and USC won 31-23 there 2 weeks later. Those 2 scores show the styles. Wisconsin's defense held 4 straight opponents to 20 or fewer, Michigan State managed just 3, and the offense only has to do enough. USC wins by putting up points: 49 on Louisiana, 42 at Rutgers, and 31 on the road against Penn State.

10/10W@Penn State31-23
10/03WvsWashington25-21
09/26LvsOregon27-41
09/19W@Rutgers42-35
09/13WvsLouisiana49-30
10/17L@9UCLA7-17
10/03WvsMichigan State31-3
09/26W@Penn State24-20
09/19WvsEastern Michigan54-10
09/12WvsWestern Illinois36-9

USC's 1 loss was at home to Oregon, 41-27, and that's the one game where the Trojans' defense got pushed around. They've won 4 of 5, but the 25-21 win over Washington shows they can get dragged into a close game. Wisconsin's 4-1 stretch includes a lot of padding: Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan combined for 19 points in 2 blowouts. The win at Penn State and the 31-3 rout of Michigan State count for more, and the UCLA loss was the first time this group got held down.

Maiava's receivers are getting thin. C. Simms is out for the season with a knee injury, T. Anderson is out with an undisclosed injury, and R. Tezeno is questionable with a foot problem. USC is also without guard K. O'Connor for the year. Trent Mosley, Tanook Hines and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt all scored at Penn State, so the depth has held up so far. But a Wisconsin secondary that's been stingy all year will test how many healthy receivers USC really has.

The early forecast for Madison is mild: low 60s, cloudy, light wind, almost no chance of rain, which is ideal for a late-October Big Ten game on NBC. A week out, that can still change. The question is simple. If Wisconsin cleans up the mistakes from the Rose Bowl and gets its running backs back, Camp Randall becomes a tough place for a West Coast team to play. If not, a rested USC offense gets a tired, banged-up Badgers team at the right time.

USC vs. Wisconsin: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 24) — USC Brings A Rested Offense Into Camp Randall Against Wounded Badgers · Barstool Bush