Boise State's September was a harder climb. Spencer Danielson's third Broncos team opened the year on the road at Oregon on September 5, which is about as hard an opener as a new Pac-12 member could draw. The Broncos have had the rest of the month to settle in since. This is their first home test against a league opponent under the new logo, and nobody in Boise expects the Aggies to be the ones setting the tone.
Watch what Utah State's defense does early. That unit held Washington to 16 on the road and allowed only 10 against Troy. If it can make Boise drive the length of the field, and Brosterhous keeps it clean for a quarter or two, the Aggies can drag this into the kind of low, grinding game they've shown they can play. The Idaho State and Utah games show the other outcome: one turnover leads to a short field, the offense can't answer, and it snowballs fast.
The early forecast for Boise on Saturday, October 3 is warm and clear: 81 degrees, no rain in the outlook and a light breeze around 11 mph. That's a week-out projection, so it can change. As it stands, though, weather shouldn't slow either team down, and the evening kickoff should be comfortable.
The Aggies are 1-3 heading into Boise, and they'll need a turnover-free night from their quarterback plus another strong showing from their defense to make this interesting in the fourth quarter. That's two things to go right, and they've only managed both together once this season.