Two Mountain West exiles renew acquaintances as conference rivals for the first time, and the Aggies still owe the Broncos one after last year's gut-punch finish.
Bush’s Picks
USUBOIS
USUBOIS
OverUnder
Best BetBoise State
Boise State enters as the Pac-12's preseason favorite for a reason — the roster gap here is real, especially on the ground where the Broncos have a proven, dominant duo. Utah State's path to the upset runs through a shaky Aggies defense holding up against a team that torched people rushing the ball a year ago. Back the more complete roster at home.
Utah State
+Javen Jacobs torched Boise for 92 yards, a TD on 5 carries in 2025
+New OC Robert Anae brings a proven BYU/Virginia system
+QB Hillstead already holds program's freshman passing record
−Lost leading receiver Braden Pagen to rival Utah
−CFN projects a losing 5-7 season, defense a worry
−First true road test in a new, tougher conference
Boise State
+Preseason Pac-12 favorite entering its first season in the league
+Riley/Gaines combined for 1,900+ yards, 18 TDs in 2025
+Defense jumped from 60th to 39th nationally under Chinander
−Top two receivers gone, Madsen's completion rate dipped to 58%
−Lost safety Ty Benefield and most of its top tacklers
−Only one of last year's top-five tacklers returns
This one carries extra weight beyond the standings. Boise State and Utah State spent 13 years beating each other up in the Mountain West, and now they're doing it as Pac-12 rivals, with the Broncos installed as the league's preseason favorite. For the Aggies, Saturday, October 3 is also personal — last season's loss to Boise State was one of two late heartbreakers, alongside the UNLV defeat, that kept a promising Bronco Mendenhall debut season from turning special.
Utah State enters with a new offensive brain trust. Mendenhall tapped Robert Anae, his OC during two stints at BYU and six seasons at Virginia, to run the show, and handed the keys to McCae Hillstead — a familiar face making his second stint in Logan after two years at BYU. Hillstead already owns the program's freshman passing record, so there's real upside if Anae's system clicks early. Boise State, meanwhile, is breaking in a much thinner receiver room after Chris Marshall bolted for Arkansas and its top two wideouts ran out of eligibility.
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USU Utah State
BOIS Boise State
The bigger swing factor might be defense. Boise State jumped from 60th to 39th nationally under coordinator Erik Chinander last year, but safety Ty Benefield left for LSU and only one of the team's top-five tacklers is back. Utah State's defense is the bigger question mark of the two — CFN's preseason math has the Aggies at 5-7 largely because of it — which sets up a game where both offenses could find more room than either coaching staff would like.
Utah State Aggies
Sep 26?vs Troy—
Sep 19?@ Utah—
Sep 12?@ Washington—
Sep 5?vs Idaho State—
Boise State Broncos
Sep 25?@ Western Michigan—
Sep 19?vs South Dakota—
Sep 12?vs Memphis—
Sep 5?@ Oregon—
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If there's a reason to think Utah State can hang around, it's Javen Jacobs. The running back barely got 10 carries a game last season but averaged 6.6 yards a pop, and he saved his best for this exact matchup — 92 yards and a touchdown on just 5 carries against Boise State a year ago. Boise's answer is its own downhill duo, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who combined for over 1,900 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025 and turned the Broncos into a near-automatic win any time they topped 170 rushing yards as a team.
Utah State Aggies
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Boise State Broncos
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Utah State also reshaped its receiver corps and secondary this offseason, importing 29 transfers including safety Chapman Lewis and corner Antonio Bluiett to pair with returning nickel Bryson Taylor. Whether that group is ready for a Pac-12 road test against the league's presumptive favorite is the real question hovering over this one — and it's the kind of matchup where the roster gap on paper could either hold up as advertised or get tested early by an Aggies offense with something to prove.
