San Diego State and Utah State are about to find out what life in the new Pac-12 actually looks like, and this November tune-up will say a lot about which program handled the jump better.
Bush’s Picks
USUSDSU
USUSDSU
OverUnder
Best BetSan Diego State
San Diego State's the safer outright pick here on paper — a veteran quarterback and a loaded receiving corps beat an unproven starting situation more often than not. The swing factor is how fast the Aztecs' rebuilt defense comes together, but until Utah State's new pieces prove otherwise, the proven core takes it.
Utah State
+Year 2 under Mendenhall with 29 newcomers infused
+Bowl appearance in 2025 shows program trending up
+Added transfer talent at safety, corner, linebacker
−Brand-new starting QB with zero starts at USU
−New offensive coordinator still installing system
−CFN projects a middling 5-7 season
San Diego State
+9-4 finish in 2025 with bowl appearance
+Veteran QB Denegal returns with top receivers healthy
+Deepest, most explosive skill-position group in the league
−Has to replace almost the entire defense
−Denegal banged up and inconsistent late last season
−First-ever Pac-12 season brings unknown competition level
This one's a quarterback story before it's anything else. San Diego State brings back Jayden Denegal, the Michigan transfer who's started for two seasons but never quite looked comfortable down the stretch last year after picking up bumps and bruises. Utah State counters with a total unknown: BYU transfer McCae Hillstead, handed the keys in Year 2 of the Bronco Mendenhall rebuild without a single snap of game tape as the guy in Logan.
The gap in continuity is the whole ballgame here. Denegal has Jordan Napier, Jacob Bostick and Donovan Brown all healthy again, arguably the deepest receiving corps in the new conference, which should let Sean Lewis open up an offense that was effective but stuck in low gear for stretches of 2025. Utah State, by contrast, is leaning on 29 newcomers, a new offensive coordinator and a defense trying to replace pieces on the fly. Mendenhall got the Aggies bowl-eligible in Year 1, which counts for something, but this is still a program mid-rebuild walking into a new league.
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USU Utah State
SDSU San Diego State
San Diego State's own roster turnover shouldn't get lost either. The Aztecs have to replace almost their entire defense after last year's group carried the team to a 9-4 finish and a bowl trip, and that unit's growing pains will decide how far this offense actually has to carry them. If San Diego State's new-look defense is still finding its footing by mid-November, this is exactly the kind of game a scrappy Utah State roster could steal.
Both teams are chasing the same thing: proving they belong in a conference that now includes Boise State, Oregon State and Washington State. For San Diego State, it's about validating a preseason ceiling that some have as high as a Pac-12 title. For Utah State, it's about showing Mendenhall's rebuild is trending up, not just treading water. Neither program has played a single Pac-12 down yet, so treat any confidence about this one with a grain of salt.
Utah State Aggies
Nov 7?vs Fresno State—
Oct 31?vs Colorado State—
Oct 9?vs Washington State—
Oct 3?@ Boise State—
Sep 26?vs Troy—
Sep 19?@ Utah—
Sep 12?@ Washington—
Sep 5?vs Idaho State—
San Diego State Aztecs
Oct 31?vs Washington State—
Oct 17?vs Fresno State—
Oct 10?@ Oregon State—
Oct 3?vs Texas State—
Sep 25?@ Toledo—
Sep 19?vs James Madison—
Sep 12?@ UCLA—
Sep 5?vs Portland State—
Recent form.
By the time Saturday, November 14 rolls around, both rosters will have had a full season to figure out who they actually are. That's the appeal of a game like this: it's a proving-ground matchup between a team with more name recognition and a team with more forward momentum, and right now it's genuinely unclear which matters more in a brand-new league.
