UTEP Miners at Air Force Falcons

Two programs coming off losing seasons collide in Colorado Springs, and one of them is playing an entirely new brand of football to get here.

Bush’s Picks

UTEPAF

UTEPAF

OverUnder

Best BetAir Force

Air Force is the far more established program here, and that should carry weight even coming off a losing season. UTEP is starting a new quarterback behind an almost entirely rebuilt offensive line in a conference it's never seen, which is a tough combination to bet against Air Force with. Back the Falcons to win outright in a spot where continuity matters more than last year's record.

UTEP

• +QB transfer EJ Colson threw 19 TDs against just 4 INTs in 2025
• +First trip into a Mountain West that's collectively weaker than before
• −Finished 2-10 with an offense ranked 129th nationally
• −Lost every offensive starter, 3rd new OC setup in as many years

Air Force

• +Option rushing attack ranked top-3 nationally in 2025
• +Closed 2025 winning 3 of last 6, including a 42-21 win over Colorado State
• −Finished 4-8, back-to-back losing seasons for the first time under Calhoun
• −Defense allowed 3rd-down conversions at one of the nation's worst rates

Friday, November 20 marks Air Force's first look at a brand-new Mountain West rival, and both sidelines are leaning on new faces to make it count. Air Force's approach never really changes — the triple-option, clock-eating rushing attack that ranked among the nation's top-3 a year ago is still the engine, even as Troy Calhoun's staff searches for enough stops to matter. UTEP's operation looks almost nothing like the one that finished 2-10 last fall: Incarnate Word transfer EJ Colson, who threw for 19 total touchdowns against just 4 interceptions a season ago, is the new answer at quarterback behind a nearly complete offensive rebuild up front.

None of that turnover comes without risk. UTEP lost every offensive starter from a team that ranked 129th nationally in success rate, and it's counting on transfers like running back Tavorus Jones and receiver Kam Thomas to hit the ground running in a conference the program has never played in. Air Force isn't exactly a finished product either — the defense let opponents convert more than half of their third-down tries in 2025, one of the worst marks in the country. Nobody's fully sorted out who's more trustworthy this far from kickoff, which is exactly the kind of spot where the more established program tends to get the benefit of the doubt.

Show fees

7:00 PM CT

Spread

ML

Total

UTEP UTEP

AF Air Force

Strip away the market noise and this comes down to identity versus installation. Air Force knows exactly what it wants to be — run it, control the clock, make the other sideline uncomfortable — and it's been doing that under Calhoun for two decades. UTEP is starting over again, breaking in its third different offensive coordinator setup in as many years and asking a first-year starter to steady a unit that was among the least efficient in the country a season ago.

UTEP Miners

Nov 13?vs Wyoming—

Nov 6?vs Hawai'i—

Oct 31?@ North Dakota State—

Oct 17?vs San José State—

Oct 9?vs Nevada—

Oct 2?@ New Mexico—

Sep 26?vs Oregon State—

Sep 19?@ Michigan—

Sep 12?vs Texas Southern—

Sep 4?@ Oklahoma—

Air Force Falcons

Nov 14?vs San José State—

Nov 7?@ Army—

Oct 31?vs UConn—

Oct 23?@ Wyoming—

Oct 17?vs UNLV—

Oct 10?@ Northern Illinois—

Oct 3?vs Navy—

Sep 25?@ Nevada—

Sep 12?vs North Dakota State—

Sep 5?vs Duquesne—

Air Force's finish says more about this program than its final record did. A 1-5 start looked like a third straight losing season in the making, but Calhoun's group closed by winning 3 of its final 6, capped by a 42-21 rout of Colorado State to keep the Ram-Falcon Trophy in Colorado Springs. That kind of late surge, paired with a defense that has nowhere to go but up, is why nobody around the program is treating another losing year as a foregone conclusion.

UTEP Miners

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

Air Force Falcons

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

UTEP, meanwhile, is just trying to find its footing in a league it's never played in before. Linebacker Blake Fletcher anchors an Air Force defense that has actual returning production to lean on, while the Miners are still figuring out who their guys are on a roster stitched together largely through the transfer portal. That gap in continuity is the whole story here — until UTEP proves otherwise, this reads like a program still finding itself walking into a far more settled operation.