Look at what New Mexico has done when it wasn't playing Oklahoma. It beat Central Michigan 38-7 in the opener, beat Mercyhurst 70-7, and then won 42-18 at New Mexico State in a rivalry game on the road. The defense that held the Sooners to 14 hasn't let anyone else past 18. UTEP's one win was 51-10 over FCS Texas Southern. The Miners hosted Oregon State for homecoming in their last game before this trip, and that was the only other data point this staff had to show against a Power 4 roster before starting league play.
UTEP's problem is simple: it hasn't scored against good defenses. It was shut out in Norman, and 17 points at Michigan came after that game was already out of reach. New Mexico's defense has a lot of returning players from last year's bowl team. If the Miners can't get first downs early, a young offense in its first road game in a new conference could fall behind quickly.
The forecast won't be an excuse for anyone. It calls for 71 degrees and clear skies with a 6 mph breeze in Albuquerque, which is about as good as early-October football weather gets. For UTEP, the goal is to look like a Mountain West team for 4 quarters. For New Mexico, it's to take care of business at home before a 2-week gap and a trip to Hawaii.
The spread tells you who should win. The more useful thing to watch is whether the Lobos' offense, which has scored 38 or more in 3 of 4 games, keeps it up in conference play. And if the Miners give up 50 for a 3rd time this year, their first season in the Mountain West is going to be a long one.