The board treats this as close to a coin flip, with the road team a slight favorite. That's about the respect Virginia has earned so far. The Cavaliers were No. 25 heading into weeks 2 and 3, then fell out of the AP poll after West Virginia beat them 38-27 in Charlotte. That game is the best measure of how they handle a team that can punch back, and it didn't go their way.
The matchup that settles this is Virginia's passing game against a Florida State secondary that Alabama hit for 50. If Pribula plays the way he did against Delaware, where he was accurate and got the ball out on time, Mike Norvell's defense is in for another long afternoon. If the Seminoles can make the game look more like the Central Arkansas result than the Alabama one, their offense has shown every week that it can win a shootout.
Tallahassee in early October is supposed to be hot, and the forecast 6 days out calls for 87 degrees with a 47% chance of light drizzle and very little wind. That's a long way from settled, but a wet ball with humidity like that can slow down 2 offenses that both want to throw it around. Keep an eye on the forecast as the week goes on.
The stakes are simple. Florida State can't afford to fall to 0-2 in conference play with the season barely a month old. Virginia has a chance to prove the 3-1 start is real by winning at Doak Campbell. Both teams are unranked, and whoever wins leaves Saturday with an actual ACC résumé.