Two of the ACC's rising powers collide on Friday, October 16, and both are chasing something bigger than a regular-season win — Virginia a real shot at back-to-back winning seasons, SMU a Heisman campaign for its quarterback.
Bush’s Picks
UVASMU
UVASMU
OverUnder
Best BetSMU
SMU's the safer outright pick here purely because Kevin Jennings is a known commodity running it back for a fifth year, while Virginia is trusting a first-year starter in a brand-new building. Jennings' track record — nearly two-thirds career win rate as a starter — is hard to bet against at home, even with new coordinators calling plays around him.
Virginia
+Program-record 11 wins and ACC title game trip in 2025
+15 returning starters, deep transfer additions at RB/WR
−Brand-new starting QB in his first year at UVA
−Never strung together back-to-back winning seasons since 2018-19
SMU
+Kevin Jennings back for year 5, .731 win pct as a starter
+Four straight winning seasons, second-best ACC title odds
−Lost both coordinators, now running plays by committee
−Jennings' Heisman odds (100-1) reflect a national respect gap
Virginia enters year 5 under Tony Elliott with the most talent-loaded roster of his tenure, and it starts under center. After one of the more closely watched quarterback battles in the country, Elliott named Missouri transfer Beau Pribula the starter over fellow newcomer Eli Holstein heading into preseason camp. Pribula started all 10 games he played at Missouri last season, completed nearly 68% of his passes, and gives the Cavaliers a dual-threat dimension they didn't have with Chandler Morris.
SMU, meanwhile, isn't dealing with any quarterback intrigue at all. Kevin Jennings is back for a fifth year, and Rhett Lashlee has turned the QB's return into a full-blown Heisman push, complete with a 'K7NG OF DALLAS' campaign aimed at making Jennings the program's first winner since Doak Walker in 1948. Among returning ACC quarterbacks, nobody has more career passing yards, total offense, or starting wins than Jennings, who owns a .731 winning percentage as a starter.
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The bigger question for SMU isn't who's throwing the ball — it's who's calling the plays. Both coordinators are gone: the offensive coordinator left to become Missouri State's head coach, and the defensive coordinator took a job with the Dallas Cowboys. Lashlee is running both sides by committee this fall, a structural wrinkle that will get real stress-tested against a Virginia team that reached last year's ACC Championship Game and beat Missouri in the Gator Bowl.
Virginia Cavaliers
Oct 9?vs Syracuse—
Oct 2?@ Florida State—
Sep 25?vs Delaware—
Sep 19?vs West Virginia—
Sep 11?vs Norfolk State—
Aug 29?vs NC State—
SMU Mustangs
Oct 2?vs Boston College—
Sep 25?vs Missouri State—
Sep 19?@ Louisville—
Sep 12?vs UC Davis—
Sep 7?@ Florida State—
Recent form.
Virginia's case for taking a step forward is built on continuity everywhere except quarterback. Elliott brings back 15 starters from an 11-win team, and the roster additions weren't patchwork — the Cavaliers went out and got three transfer running backs (Jekail Middlebrook, Peyton Lewis, Solomon Beebe) and three transfer receivers (Rico Flores Jr., Da'Shawn Martin, Jacquon Gibson) to surround Pribula. It's the first time in years UVA has entered a season with legitimate depth at the skill positions instead of hoping for health.
SMU's counter is simpler: this program just keeps winning, and Jennings is the reason why. Four straight winning seasons under Lashlee, a first bowl win last year, and a second-place spot in the ACC title odds — tied with Louisville, behind only preseason favorite Miami — say the Mustangs belong in every conversation about the conference's best. Whether a shuffled coaching staff can keep that machine running smoothly against a Virginia team playing with a chip on its shoulder is the whole ballgame.
