That favorite tag doesn't cover how SMU lost in Syracuse. Jennings and the passing game moved the ball all day. Yannick Smith caught 5 for 95 and Yamir Knight had 6 for 80 and a score. The Mustangs also lost 2 fumbles, and in a 3-point game that's the whole margin. The run game has been the weak spot with 2 backs out, and Kendrick Raphael needed 14 carries to get 51 yards.
The Hokies have figured something out over the last month. They lost back-to-back to Pittsburgh by 2 and at Cal by 5, then beat Georgia Tech 34-24 and went into Clemson and won. That made them bowl eligible at 6-2 in Franklin's first season. It was also their first win over Clemson since 2007. The defense had 13 tackles for loss and ended it with a fourth-down stop. That's the kind of front that can stall an SMU offense that's already short on running backs.
SMU's last 5 were mostly comfortable. They beat Missouri State 34-24, Boston College 25-16 and Virginia 23-13, then put up 59 on Cal before the Syracuse loss. Cal is the one opponent both teams have played. The Hokies lost to the Bears by 5 on the road, and SMU beat them by 39 at home. That comparison is the strongest case for the Mustangs. The forecast is 70 degrees, cloudy and light wind, so conditions shouldn't affect either passing game.
So this is a ranked home team with the better quarterback numbers against a road team whose defense has won the last 2 weeks and whose offense is down to a tight end and whatever receivers are healthy. If SMU holds onto the ball, Jennings should be able to move it on this defense. If the Hokies get into the backfield the way they did at Clemson, it turns into a close, low-scoring game, and that's the only kind they've won lately.
