The name of this series says it all: this is the Riot Bowl, born out of both fan bases' history of tearing things up after big wins, and it's been lopsided lately. Iowa State has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings, including the 2018 upset of a top-6, undefeated West Virigina team that torched the Mountaineers' playoff hopes. History means little with this much roster turnover on both sides, but the Cyclones have shown they can play spoiler in this matchup even in years they weren't supposed to be competitive.
The outside expectations for these programs point in opposite directions. Preseason Big 12 polls have tabbed Iowa State to finish dead last in the conference, with one outlet putting the closest team to them at 77 in a 100-team power ranking system — brutal for a program that's made bowl games under Campbell for most of the last decade. West Virginia, meanwhile, is being pegged for its first winning record in 3 years, with a portal-fueled roster upgrade that's given Rodriguez real optimism heading into year two.
Whichever quarterback wins each job will be under a spotlight from the jump. Fox already has 6 college starts under his belt as a true freshman, which gives West Virginia a fallback option if Hawkins doesn't lock things down cleanly. Iowa State doesn't have that luxury — new coordinator Tyler Roehl, fresh off a stint with the Detroit Lions, is installing his offense with almost no continuity at the position, and however that battle shakes out in August will shape how competitive the Cyclones can actually be by the time October rolls around.
Whichever way the preseason polls lean, this is still a rivalry game between two programs mid-rebuild, and those tend to get weird. Friday, October 2 in Ames is a long way off, and both rosters will look different by kickoff than they do right now — but the framework is set: a Mountaineers team with rising expectations against a Cyclones team nobody outside Ames expects much from.