Look at who each team has played. Western Kentucky's losses came at Georgia (70-20), at Indiana (38-0) and at New Mexico State (34-13). Its 2 wins came at home against Mercyhurst and Missouri State. When the opponent was its size or smaller, the Hilltoppers played like a functional team. When it wasn't, they got buried.
Mercyhurst52-7
Sam Houston's season has gone the other way. In September the Bearkats were in games: a 24-21 loss at Troy and a 23-17 home loss to Tulsa, with the defense keeping both close. Then the offense dried up. They scored 14 at Texas Tech and 3 at Liberty, coming off a bye that was supposed to have shown real progress on offense, according to the WagerTalk preview. The 59-0 win over Nicholls is the only time this group has looked comfortable, and Nicholls doesn't tell you much.
The forecast is 80 degrees and partly cloudy, with a 12 mph breeze and a 17 percent chance of rain, so weather shouldn't decide it. The questions are simple. Can Sam Houston's defense go back to its September form at home? Can its offense score enough to make that matter? And does Western Kentucky look like the team that handled Missouri State or the one that got buried on the road?