Western Michigan spent 2025 winning a MAC title and a bowl game. Buffalo spent it rebuilding on the fly, and now it starts over again with a new quarterback under center.
Bush’s Picks
WMUBUF
WMUBUF
OverUnder
Best BetWestern Michigan
Western Michigan returns the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year and a 1,000-yard back, while Buffalo is trusting a D2 transfer quarterback in his first taste of FBS competition. That gap in returning production at the most important position on the field makes the Broncos the play to win outright, even on the road.
Western Michigan
+Reigning MAC champs, 10-4 with a bowl win
+Broc Lowry, MAC Offensive Player of the Year, returns
+Jalen Buckley back after 1,000-yard, near-6 YPC season
−Lost DC Chris O'Leary and top pass rusher Tucker
−New coordinator Greer Martini unproven in the role
−2025 defense's fumble-recovery rate unlikely to repeat
Buffalo
+Alex Heininger returns as an All-MAC lineman
+Lembo's 15 wins in 2 seasons, most by a UB coach ever
+Went 3-1 in MAC road games last year, tied program mark
This one has an odd shape to it before a snap is even played. Western Michigan brings back the guy who was the MAC's best offensive player, Broc Lowry, plus the workhorse back who ran behind him. Buffalo brings back almost nobody from the group that made it go on offense in 2025. That's the story of this Friday night MAC clash before you even get to scheme.
Buffalo's issue isn't complicated: Ta'Quan Roberson, Nik McMillan and Al-Jay Henderson all drove that offense last season, and all three are gone. In their place is Elijah Holmes, a D2 transfer from Wingate penciled in as the new starter, a big jump in competition for a quarterback who completed passes in the low 60s at a lower level. Head coach Pete Lembo has built real stability at UB — 15 wins in his first two seasons is the most by any coach in program history over that stretch — but this offense is starting from close to zero.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
WMU Western Michigan
BUF Buffalo
Western Michigan doesn't have that problem. Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley, who topped 1,000 yards on nearly 6 yards a carry last year, are both back behind four returning offensive line starters. The Broncos do have a real question of their own on the other side of the ball: defensive coordinator Chris O'Leary left for the Chargers, and star pass rusher Nadame Tucker is gone off a defense that was tied for fourth nationally in sacks. New coordinator Greer Martini inherits the scheme but not the swagger, for now.
Western Michigan Broncos
Sep 25?vs Boise State—
Sep 19?@ Rice—
Sep 12?vs Monmouth—
Sep 5?@ Michigan—
Buffalo Bulls
Sep 26?vs Robert Morris—
Sep 19?@ Penn State—
Sep 12?@ Florida International—
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Recent form.
The turnover margin angle matters here too. Western Michigan's defense recovered 12 of 13 forced fumbles a season ago, the kind of variance that rarely repeats. If the ball starts bouncing the other way for the Broncos, that's where a rebuilding Buffalo team could actually hang around, especially with a raucous home atmosphere pushing them along.
Still, roster continuity tends to win out in September and October MAC games, before injuries and fatigue level things off later in the year. Western Michigan enters this one with far more returning production, far more proven pieces at the two most important offensive positions, and a defense that, even in an uncertain year, has more talent to plug in than what Buffalo is working with on the other side of the ball.
