TLDR: Western Michigan came into 2026 as the coaches' pick to win the MAC, and after a 32-7 loss at home to Boise State, the conference schedule is the Broncos' best chance to back that up. It starts on the road at Buffalo on Saturday, October 3.
Western Michigan, the coaches' preseason favorite in the MAC, opens league play at Buffalo after a 2-2 September. The Broncos lost at the buzzer to Michigan and got beaten badly at home by Boise State. Buffalo is in Pete Lembo's 3rd season and has almost an entirely new roster, and the game probably comes down to whether the Broncos' offense, which has struggled against better defenses, can take advantage of that inexperience.
Both teams are done with non-conference play, so this is the MAC opener for each and a real game for the first time. Western Michigan went 2-2 in September. The Broncos had Michigan beaten 12-7 in the Big House until a 47-yard Hail Mary with no time left, which only happened after officials put 1 second back on the clock. They then handled Monmouth 49-14, got by Rice 28-21 and were run out of their own stadium by Boise State. Broc Lowry is back at quarterback, and whether he can get this offense moving again is the main question heading into Saturday.
Buffalo's September was built to test a new roster. Pete Lembo is in his 3rd year and won 15 games over his first 2, the most by a UB coach over his first 2 seasons. He started this one with 54 new players and only 5 returning starters. The Bulls opened against UAlbany, went to FIU, played at Penn State and closed with Robert Morris at home. That's 2 FCS opponents, a Group of 5 road trip and a Big Ten beating. Nobody has seen this group against a MAC opponent yet, and that's who shows up at Broadview Stadium.
The Broncos' season comes down to this: their defense held up against Michigan, and their offense has struggled against anyone with size. They put up 12 in Ann Arbor and 7 against Boise State, and most of their points came in the Monmouth blowout. That game makes the season numbers look better than the offense has actually been. If Western Michigan is going to play like the conference favorite, the offense has to look like one against a Buffalo defense still learning to play together.
For Buffalo, the upset case isn't complicated. Lembo's first 2 teams won by being organized and making few mistakes, and a home crowd in the conference opener can make up for some of the roster turnover. A Western Michigan team coming off a 25-point home loss could start slow on the road. What we don't know yet is how many of those 54 newcomers can hold up for 4 quarters against a MAC front.
Weather shouldn't be a factor. The early forecast for Buffalo is 63 degrees, clear skies and almost no wind, which is about as good as October gets on the lake. Western Michigan has plenty of MAC road games left, with trips to Central Michigan and Toledo in October. If the Broncos want a shot at the title everyone picked them for, this is a game they should win comfortably.
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls — Western Michigan Opens MAC Play at Buffalo After Boise State Beatdown | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
Robert Morris31-28
UAlbany21-17