William & Mary Tribe at Duke Blue Devils

Sep 26, 20262:30 PM CTDurham, NC
By JR·2 min read
William & Mary TribeW&M(2-2)
AT
2:30 PM CT

TLDR: Duke is 3-0, just handled Stanford by 4 touchdowns, and now gets a week off from the ACC in the form of an FCS visitor it hasn't seen since 1955. The only question on Saturday, September 26 in Durham is how long the Blue Devils' starters stick around.

SAT SEP 26, 2:30 PM CT
Spread
WIN
Total
William & Mary
(2-2)
LLWWL
(3-0)
WWWWW
Kickoff79°

Duke comes in 3-0 behind Nate Sheppard, the country's leading rusher through 3 games, and a defense that allowed 10 points in 2 home games. William & Mary is 2-2 and just gave up 52 to Fordham, which leaves the Tribe's hopes resting on turnovers and Duke resting its starters early. The board has Duke as a 7-touchdown favorite, so the result isn't in doubt. The real question is how many points the starters put up before the backups take over.

William & Mary
  • Duke starters likely rest early with ACC play next
  • Leads the all-time series 6-1, for what it's worth
  • Gave up 52 to Fordham in the last outing
  • FCS roster against a 3-0 Power 4 opponent
Duke
  • Nate Sheppard is the nation's best rusher through 3 games
  • Defense allowed 10 points in 2 home games
  • Tune-up before ACC play means starters may leave early
  • Backups could play most of the second half

This one comes down to Duke's offense against a Tribe team that needs to show it can hang for a half. Walker Eget is behind center for the Blue Devils, but the engine through 3 games has been running back Nate Sheppard, who Sports Illustrated has as college football's best rusher so far. The Blue Devils have beaten Tulane 17-3, won 31-27 at Illinois and beaten Stanford 35-7 in the ACC opener. They've done it with a defense that has allowed 10 points in 2 home games, and Manny Diaz's third team looks like it knows exactly what it is.

William & Mary comes into Saturday at 2-2, and its last game was ugly: a 52-27 loss to Fordham. If an FCS opponent can hang 52 on the Tribe, Sheppard and a Power 4 line are going to be a problem for them. No injury news has surfaced for either side this week. The only availability question that matters is how quickly Diaz pulls his starters with ACC play waiting on the other side of this game.

There's some history here, if you go back far enough. The Tribe won the first 6 meetings in this series, starting in 1921. Duke won the 7th, 47-7 in Durham in 1955, and the two haven't played since. William & Mary still leads 6-1 all-time, and Duke is paying $400,000 for the privilege of trying to cut into that. It's a guarantee game, and everyone involved knows how it's supposed to go.

William & Mary Tribe
(2-2)
09/19LvsFordham27-52
09/12L@Lehigh20-44
09/05WvsDelaware State22-15
08/28W@Villanova35-32
11/22LvsRichmond21-28
09/19WvsStanford35-7
09/12W@Illinois31-27
09/05WvsTulane17-3
12/31WvsArizona State42-39
12/07W@Virginia27-20

For Duke, the value of this week is keeping everyone healthy and getting the depth chart some real snaps. Sheppard has carried a big load through 3 games, and a Saturday where he's done by halftime wouldn't hurt anybody's plans. Duke's backup quarterback and second-team defense will probably play the second half, and they're who the Tribe will be trying to score against.

William & Mary Tribe
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries to report
  • OutQ. Johnson (WR)Johnson is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Stanford on Saturday.09/17
  • OutL. Gardner (QB)Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to play on Saturday against the Stanford.09/16

William & Mary needs to avoid giving the first-team offense short fields. Duke is good enough to punish mistakes, and the Tribe defense just spent an afternoon chasing Fordham. The weather won't bail anybody out either: the forecast is cloudy, 79 degrees, light wind and no rain. If Duke plays like it did against Stanford, this is over early, and the rest of the afternoon is about the backups.

Live Odds

William & Mary Tribe at Duke Blue Devils — Unbeaten Duke Hosts William & Mary in a 43.5-Point Tune-Up | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush