The schedule favors the visitors, and the game-day injury report makes that worse for UNLV. Wyoming last played when it beat Air Force 28-14 and has had a full off week since. The Rebels turn around 7 days after their Halloween game against Northern Illinois, and they do it with defensive backs Tre Fulton and Quandarius Keyes out, Jake Pope and Avery Helm questionable, and defensive lineman Lucas Conti questionable too. UNLV is also still missing receiver D. Irvin Jr. with no timetable. On the Wyoming side, Samuel Harris was listed probable with a concussion and the backfield is already without D. Hubbard (knee). The board still has the Rebels as the home favorite, though Wyoming's price has come in a long way since it opened.
That Northern Illinois game is the reason to look past UNLV's record. The Rebels were favored by more than 3 touchdowns over an 0-8 Huskies team and won 31-24, with the Review-Journal calling it a game UNLV survived by overcoming its own mistakes. Jai'Den Thomas ran for 114 yards and a score on 16 carries in that one, but he is listed questionable for this game, which puts a question mark on the part of the offense that was working. The bigger worry is a defense the same paper described as still searching for consistency, and it is now short 2 starters in the secondary.
These 2 have played 3 of the same opponents in the last 5 weeks, and the results point in different directions. Wyoming beat Northern Illinois by 18. UNLV beat the same Huskies by 7. Wyoming handled Air Force 28-14 while UNLV gave up 41 to the Falcons and lost by 10. North Dakota State goes the other way: the Bison shut Wyoming out 28-0, and UNLV beat them 13-7. The short version is that Wyoming's defense travels and its offense sometimes doesn't, while UNLV can score on anyone and can also get scored on by anyone.
There are real stakes. UNLV's win kept it in the Mountain West title race at 3-1 in league play. Wyoming is 4-1 in conference and has won 3 straight, with UTEP, New Mexico and UConn still left on the schedule. The loser of this game is probably out of the conference title picture. Wyoming has been beating teams with its defense and it needs Hughes to give it some points. A banged-up UNLV secondary is the best chance he's had in weeks. UNLV has the better offense and needs its defense to show up for 4 quarters.
A good night for Wyoming looks like a short game: Harris running behind a rested line, the defense holding Arnold to field goals, Hughes finding the holes left by Fulton and Keyes, and Erik Sandvik keeping the score close. A good night for UNLV looks like the start against Northern Illinois: an early Arnold shot, Thomas wearing the defense down if he's able to go, and Hughes forced to pass from behind, which is not how Wyoming's offense has won games this year.
