The 2025 season should have scared people off Chase and it didn't, and that tells you everything. Burrow missed time with a toe injury, the offense stumbled through stretches without him, and Chase still led the league in targets, hauling in 125 catches for 1,412 yards on 185 looks. That's a floor most receivers dream about with their quarterback playing every snap. Now Burrow's healthy heading into 2026, camp reports have Chase fully locked in after last year's extension drama, and the touchdown numbers are the only thing left to normalize back toward his 2024 peak.
Draft Market
This isn't a role battle. Chase is the unquestioned WR1 in Cincinnati, commanded over a 30% target share a year ago, and sits at the center of one of the league's most pass-heavy, red-zone-friendly offenses. Tee Higgins draws coverage away, the Bengals throw constantly to stay competitive, and Chase is the first read on basically every third-and-anything. Volume like that is why he's rostered in 99.8% of ESPN leagues -- there's no argument for fading him on role.
The market backs it up too, mostly. Live ESPN ADP has him at 4.6 and climbing, crowd mock drafts have him even higher at 3.9, and that gap between the two is worth noticing -- real drafters in real mocks are treating him as a top-4 pick outright, ahead of where the wider ESPN pool has settled. Kalshi's numbers read a little more cautious: 14.5% to finish the WR1 overall, good for third among receivers on that board, with a 24% shot at the receiving yards crown and 11.5% for touchdowns. That's the market pricing in touchdown variance -- Chase scored just 8 times in 2025 after 17 the year before -- without doubting the volume.
Award Markets
Here's where I push back on the market a little. A healthy Burrow for a full 17 games changes the touchdown math more than a 14.5% WR1 probability suggests. Chase's yardage floor is already elite regardless of who's throwing him the ball; the only thing that was missing in 2025 was the quarterback delivering it in scoring position consistently. Get that back and an 11 or 12 touchdown season isn't a stretch, which pushes him firmly into true WR1-overall conversation rather than just a very safe WR2/WR3 range outcome.
Verdict: pay the cost. Chase is a top-4-to-5 overall pick and there's no version of a smart draft strategy where you let him slide past pick 5 hoping for a discount -- crowd mocks already show other drafters won't let that happen. If you're picking in the 3-6 range, take him and don't overthink the running backs sitting there instead. This is as close to a locked-in target monster as fantasy offers in 2026.
