The Nationals just blew a five-run lead against Houston and won anyway — now they run it back with a wild-card race and a suspended starter hanging over the series.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 7, 4:20 AM CT
+107HOUWSH-115
-188HOU +1.5WSH -1.5+168
+107+101Over 9.5Under 9.5-113
Best BetNationals -115
Washington's lineup is clicking — Wood, Abrams and Mead all raked in Monday's win — while Imai's ERA has ballooned to 6.14 after his last start lasted barely over an inning. The Nationals have the deeper offense right now, even without Cavalli, and that's enough to lean their way at these prices.
Astros
+Altuve/Diaz power surge, 11 runs in Monday's loss
+Imai tossed a combined no-hitter earlier this season
+Front office buying at deadline, believes in the roster
−45-48, fallen below .500 in a soft AL West
−Rotation gutted: McCullers, Blanco, Wesneski all rehabbing
−Imai's ERA at 6.14 after a 1.1-inning implosion last start
Nationals
+47-45, above .500 and in the NL East mix
+Wood, Abrams, Mead all producing, Nuñez a stolen-base threat
+Just won a wild one, overcoming a five-run deficit
−Cavalli suspended for this series after Fenway incident
−Rotation thin behind Alvarez: Irvin, Williams, Gray all out
−Bullpen (Cole Henry) already blew a big lead this week
Tatsuya Imai (5-4, 6.14 ERA) gets the ball for Houston, and Andrew Alvarez (2-1, 3.05 ERA) counters for Washington at 6:45 PM ET. Imai signed a three-year, $54 million deal out of NPB and tossed six no-hit innings back in May, but his last outing was a disaster — 1.1 innings, 5 earned runs against Minnesota. Alvarez has been steadier overall, though his bullpen let a lead slip in his last start against Baltimore.
Washington's rotation gets thinner this week. Cade Cavalli's five-game suspension — reduced from seven after his ejection-sparking incident with Willson Contreras at Fenway — kicks in with this series, and Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams are both still working back from injury. Houston isn't much healthier: Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are all on rehab assignments, part of why GM Dana Brown has already signaled the Astros will be buyers at the deadline, chasing bullpen arms and an outfield bat.
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HOU Astros
WSH Nationals
None of that stopped Monday's series opener from turning into a slugfest. James Wood's fifth-inning grand slam and a three-hit night from CJ Abrams carried Washington to a 12-11 win after Houston had led by five, with Jose Altuve and a late Astros rally keeping it interesting until the final out. Shaky pitching and dangerous lineups on both sides — that's the theme of this series, and it's baked into how the market is pricing this one.
Houston Astros
Washington Nationals
Recent form.
Washington's lineup has carried this series, not its rotation. Nasim Nuñez's league-leading stolen base total gives the Nats another gear on the bases, and with Wood and Curtis Mead both hot, Washington has scored at least nine runs in three of its last five games. Houston's bats haven't been shy either — that 11-run outburst Monday came against a bullpen that couldn't hold a five-run cushion, a sign this series could keep being a track meet.
Houston Astros
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Washington Nationals
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Both clubs technically have real stakes here — Washington is chasing Philadelphia in the NL East, Houston is clinging to wild-card hopes in a soft AL West after falling under .500. Neither team looks like a finished product, and with both rotations running on fumes, the more interesting question these next few nights might be less about who has the better name at the top and more about who can survive nine innings without the bullpen blowing it.
