Tatsuya Imai's first MLB season has been a slog. The 8.31 ERA and the 14 walks across 17.1 innings are exactly the kind of numbers that get a $30-million Japanese import labeled a bust by Memorial Day. But his last time out he gave Houston 4 2/3 innings of 3-run ball in Minnesota, which qualifies as progress, and now he faces a Rangers offense playing without Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Smith. There may not be a better time to find your footing.
On the other side is Kumar Rocker, who finally figured something out by not pitching the first inning. Texas ran an opener in front of him last Tuesday, Rocker came in and threw 7 2/3 scoreless at the Rockies, and his ERA fell from 4.34 to 3.60 in one night. Whether the Rangers run the same script tonight or just hand him the ball straight is the most interesting tactical question of the evening — Rocker's career first-inning ERA was sitting at 11.25 before that experiment.
The injury list situation is genuinely brutal on both sides. Houston is still missing Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Yordan Alvarez (back, day-to-day), Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa, who is rehabbing from ankle surgery. Texas counters with Seager, Langford, Jordan Montgomery, and Josh Smith, who was hospitalized with viral meningitis earlier this month. Two clubs hovering around .500 with this many regulars on the shelf is its own kind of accomplishment.
- Day-To-DayYordan Alvarez DH — Alvarez (back) won't be in the lineup for Sunday's series finale against the Cubs, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz C — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Altuve 2B — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Altuve (oblique) is expected to resume swinging a bat "in the next day or two," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — Loperfido (quad) will begin a rehab assignment Sunday with Double-A Corpus Christi, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell CF — Trammell (groin) began a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Tuesday, going 1-for-4 with a double.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- Day-To-DayJosh Jung 3B — Jung (shoulder) isn't starting against the Angels on Sunday.
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott SS — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILCorey Seager SS — Seager (back) isn't slated to be re-evaluated for "probably another week," Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford LF — Langford (forearm) was cleared to begin a throwing and hitting progression Friday, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman 3B — Freeman (back) moved his rehab from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Frisco on Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith 2B — Smith (lower body/wrist) was diagnosed with viral meningitis Friday and is receiving treatment in a hospital, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Winn RP — Winn (0-1) took the loss against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing three runs on two hits while striking out one over one-third of an inning.
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia RP — Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.
The market reads this as a coin flip with a slight Texas lean — Rangers at -131, Astros at +121, total sitting at 8. That feels about right given the pitcher gap on paper. If you trust Imai's last outing more than his season ERA, there's a number to chase. If you don't, the Rocker side is sensible, especially if the opener gimmick reappears.
Bottom line: Houston is the hotter team, Texas has the better starter and home field, and both lineups look like Triple-A affiliates by the bottom third of the order. First pitch is 6:05 PM Central. Take the under and go to bed early.