First pitch is 7:05 PM CT at Globe Life Field, and the Astros (25-32) hand the ball to Spencer Arrighetti for the series finale against Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers (25-30). Houston already owns the series 2-1 after Wednesday's 4-3 win, with Texas's only response coming in a 10-7 slugfest sandwiched between Astros wins.
Arrighetti is the story here. The 26-year-old is 6-1 with a 1.32 ERA and has not surrendered more than 2 earned runs in any start this year — he blanked the Cubs over 5 innings on May 22 in his last outing. Eovaldi is fine, not scary: 5-5, 3.65, coming off a 7-inning, 3-run loss to the Angels where the bats let him down. The Rangers' problem isn't really the rotation.
The problem is that Texas's lineup is being held together with tape. Corey Seager (back) isn't even being re-evaluated for another week, Wyatt Langford (forearm) is still working back, and Josh Smith is on the 10-day IL with an illness. Ezequiel Duran logged 2 hits and 2 RBI from shortstop in Tuesday's win, but that's a lot of weight on a utility guy against a pitcher running a sub-1.50 ERA.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILJose Altuve 2B — Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that the Astros could have Altuve (oblique) simulate at-bats rather than embark on a rehab assignment, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) will pause his rehab assignment until Wednesday after fouling a ball off his foot during Sunday's game with Double-A Corpus Christie, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz C — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa RP — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
- 60-Day-ILCristian Javier SP — Javier (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a live batting practice session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayEzequiel Duran 2B — Duran started at shortstop and went 2-for-4 with a double, two RBI and a run scored in Tuesday's 10-7 win over Houston.
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott SS — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith 2B — Smith (illness) is expected to return to Globe Life Field this week, but it's unclear when he'll be ready to ramp up his baseball activities, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford LF — Langford (forearm) will take batting practice Monday and could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILCorey Seager SS — Seager (back) isn't slated to be re-evaluated for "probably another week," Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman 3B — Freeman (back) moved his rehab from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Frisco on Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Winn RP — Winn (0-1) took the loss against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing three runs on two hits while striking out one over one-third of an inning.
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia RP — Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.
Houston is banged up too — no Altuve, no Correa, no Yainer Diaz, plus Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers Jr. and Josh Hader all rehabbing — and they're still 4-1 in the last 5. That's the read on this team right now: the rotation depth is somehow holding up, Arrighetti is pitching like an ace, and the offense is doing just enough. Wednesday's 4-3 win was the third one-score game between these two in four days.
The market has Texas as a -140 home favorite on the moneyline with the total set at 7.5, but 78% of DK moneyline tickets are on the Rangers while only 46% of the handle is — sharper money is nibbling Houston at +124. With Arrighetti on the bump and a depleted Texas lineup, it's hard to argue with that lean. Take the under and pray Eovaldi keeps the ball in the yard.